Is there a connection between prison populations, correctional supervision and crime? Based on the best available evidence from the US Department of Justice, it seems plausible.
The total adult community supervision population has decreased 23% since 2012.
For the 15th straight year, the adult correctional supervision rate declined in 2022.
The continued decline in persons on parole contributed to the lowest rate of adults on community supervision in 36 years.
The incarceration rate, 700 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, increased in 2022 (up from 680 per 100,000 in 2021 and 660 per 100,000 in 2020). But overall prison and jail numbers are down considerably since 2012.
While the incarceration rate increased in 2022 for the second consecutive year, it was still lower at year-end than the prepandemic rate.
According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice using the National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime increased 44 percent in their last official report released in 2023.
This would be the largest increase in violence in the nation’s history.
According to crimes reported to law enforcement (the vast majority are not) compiled by the FBI for 2023 in a preliminary report, violent crime decreased by 3.1 percent for metropolitan areas where the vast majority of Americans live. In metropolitan areas, robberies and vehicle thefts increased. The exceptions are homicides and rapes which decreased considerably and according to analyst Jeff Asher, homicides continue to decrease in 2024.
For 2022, the FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.
For 2021, per the FBI, homicides increased considerably between 2019 and 2021 (nearly 30 percent in 2020 and 4.3 percent in 2021). Rapes also increased in 2021.
A summation? Homicides are falling because they rose 50 percent from 2019-2022 in cities per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, referred to as a regression to the mean.
Pundits are stating that violent crime is falling considerably. Using 2021-2023 data from the US Department of Justice, the National Crime Victimization shows a huge increase in violence while reported crimes (the vast majority are not) show inconsistency.
Is There A Correlation Between Correctional Populations And Crime?
Correlations do not mean causation and there’s no way to prove that increases or decreases in the correctional population have an impact on crime.
However, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, 82 percent of those released from state prisons over ten years were arrested once again and 61 percent were returned to prison. They had 4.2 million arrests before incarceration. Forty-two percent had 5 to 10 previous incarcerations.
The US Sentencing Commission offers data stating that longer incarcerations for violent offenders reduced new crimes.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics states that 43 percent of state probationers were rearrested for a felony over three years.
Thus it’s plausible that there is a connection between correctional populations and crime per multiple federal research projects. While the incarceration rate increased in 2022 for the second consecutive year, it was still lower at year-end than the prepandemic rate.
Bureau Of Justice Statistics
An estimated 5,407,300 persons were under the supervision of adult correctional systems in the United States at year-end 2022, and 3,668,800 of those were under community supervision, according to Correctional Populations in the United States, 2022 – Statistical Tables and Probation and Parole in the United States, 2022, two reports released today by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The adult correctional system is responsible for all correctional supervision in the United States, including both persons incarcerated in prisons and jails and persons supervised in the community on probation and parole.
About 1 in 48 adult U.S. residents (2%) were under some form of correctional supervision at the end of 2022.
More than two-thirds of persons under correctional supervision were supervised in the community on probation or parole (3,668,800), while almost one-third (1,827,600) were incarcerated in state or federal prisons or local jails.
The total adult correctional supervision population decreased about 1% from year-end 2021 to year-end 2022, while the incarcerated population increased 3%. The total adult community supervision population has decreased 23% since 2012.
For the 15th straight year, the adult correctional supervision rate declined in 2022, from a peak of 3,210 under supervision per 100,000 adult U.S. residents in 2007 to 2,060 per 100,000 in 2022.
The incarceration rate, 700 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, increased in 2022 (up from 680 per 100,000 in 2021 and 660 per 100,000 in 2020).
While the incarceration rate increased in 2022 for the second consecutive year, it was still lower at year-end than the prepandemic rate.
In 2022, the number of persons under community supervision in the United States decreased 1%, from 3,705,500 on January 1 to 3,668,800 on December 31.
The probation population remained relatively stable (from 2,981,500 to 2,990,900; remaining under 3 million for the second consecutive year), while the number of persons on parole fell from 745,300 to 698,800 (down 6.2%) during 2022.
The parole population decreased in 36 states and the District of Columbia during 2022. The 2022 decrease in parole population followed a 7.1% decline in 2021, the two largest decreases since BJS began collecting probation and parole information on a yearly basis in 1980.
The continued decline in persons on parole contributed to the lowest rate of adults on community supervision in 36 years.
In 2022, the rate of individuals under community supervision fell to 1,401 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, the lowest recorded rate since 1986 (1,358 per 100,000).
The parole rate declined from 309 to 267 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents, while the probation rate increased slightly from 1,140 to 1,142 per 100,000. Entries to probation increased 10.7%, from 1,419,300 in 2021 to 1,571,500 in 2022.
These reports, related documents and additional information about BJS’s statistical publications and programs are available on the BJS website at bjs.ojp.gov.
Conclusions
The debate over correctional populations and their impact on crime will forever be hotly contested. However, based on the best available research, it’s more than possible to suggest the possibility that lower rates of correctional supervision and incarceration play a role in increasing violence and overall crime.
There were about 954,000 fewer persons on probation in 2022 than in 2012.
There were 1,570,000 people in prison in 2012. There were 1,230,000 people in prison in 2022. There has been a steady and continuous decline in the prison population. It’s the same for jails. While the incarceration rate increased in 2022 for the second consecutive year, it was still lower at year-end than the prepandemic rate.
A connection between rates of incarceration and community supervision and violence seems plausible based on the best available evidence from the US Department of Justice.
Comments
2024-06-21T18:08+0530 | Comment by: David
"A connection between rates of incarceration and community supervision and violence seems plausible based on the best available evidence from the US Department of Justice." Well...DUH.