The Crime Decline Nobody Can Explain

Background-There Have To Be Reasons

“There have to be reasons for declining crime,” states one reader. What about arrests? What about jail statistics? What about overall correctional data? Have they increased or decreased? Do they affect crime and crime statistics?

People are asking if there are statistical reasons explaining the decrease in US and urban reported crime.

Jail and overall correctional statistics are covered in a forthcoming article regarding their possible connection to declines in reported crime.

Background-Reported Crime

I’m using the term reported crime throughout the article to remind readers that, per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, the vast majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement.

There are two primary national sources for crime statistics: the FBI, which provides crime data reported to law enforcement (most are not), and the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which offers data on the totality of crime. Both provide dramatically different results about national crime. 

I’m using 2024 data in this article because they are the latest full reports from the FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics. They were released in the late summer of 2025.

Background-Crime Decreases?

Per the FBI, there are decreases in reported crimes ranging from 3 to 4.5 percent in violent crime in 2023 and 2024 (the last full report). Independent analysts state that urban or city violent crime is dropping like a rock. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, violent crime rates have dramatically increased. More below.

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People ask if there are increased arrests or correctional statistics as possible reasons for the reductions in US and urban crime, based on crime reported to the police.

We do have arrest data from the FBI, the Council on Criminal Justice, and Statista; they are included below.

We lost over 25,000 police officers and employees in recent years, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and city police departments consistently state that they are considerably understaffed, so any account of arrest numbers or jail admissions is based on a smaller number of police officers making arrest decisions.

Some are suggesting that arrest numbers “may” have increased since the pandemic, and that these numbers “may” be contributing to the decline in reported crime, especially in cities.
 
Some federal arrest categories rose 24 percent in 2022 after initial declines, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Some local jurisdictions report rebounds or increases. California statewide arrest data show a slight increase in the overall arrest rate from 2023 to 2024.
 
But what about nationwide apprehensions?
 

National Arrests, The FBI

The data below was compiled by ChatGPT. However, I downloaded arrest spreadsheet data from the FBI and compared their figures to ChatGPT’s, and they are essentially the same. I contacted the FBI for a formal response, but they never responded; I assume they are overwhelmed by the Guthrie kidnapping case.

Chart

National Arrests, The Council On Criminal Justice

Arrests (along with crimes solved) have declined considerably in the United States. Per one report using data from The Council on Criminal Justice, the 2024 arrest total was 25% lower than in 2019, the year before the pandemic, and half the number in the peak year of 1997.

The combination of falling arrests and rising resident population has driven down the national arrest rate, which in 2024 was 30% lower than in 2019 and 71% below its peak in 1994. 

Chart From The Council on Criminal Justice: Estimated Arrests

National Arrests-Statista

Statista documents modest increases in overall US arrests in 2022 before leveling off. It was a downhill trajectory for many years before increasing a bit beginning in 2022. A login is required for digital results by year.

Chart-1990-2024

Conclusions

Victims call the police to report their crimes regardless of whether an arrest was made. I am aware of a dramatic reduction in crimes solved nationally. I’m also aware of accusations that cities downgrade crimes. How all of this affects national reported crime statistics is unknown.

Based on FBI data and numbers from the Council on Criminal Justice and Statista, they collectively show little growth in arrests since the 2020 pandemic, except for a 2022 bump from Statista and a 2023 minor increase from the FBI and the Council on Criminal Justice.

Thus, any assertions that increasing arrests have contributed to a decline in reported crime in recent years seem incorrect.

Based on numbers from the Council on Criminal Justice and Statista, there has been a considerable decline in arrests since 2006.

FBI numbers from 2019 to 2024 are mostly flat, with a 25 percent decrease since 2019. The Council on Criminal Justice also indicates a 25 percent reduction since 2019.

There is a paradox: data from the National Academy of Sciences indicate that proactive policing reduces crime, yet there are fewer police officers. Proactivity requires sufficient numbers.

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States lost 25,076 local government police personnel when viewing a high point of 434,698 from November 2019 to November 2023, 409,662.

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States lost 18,004 local government police personnel from the calendar year 2019 (431,666) to 413,662 in 2023.

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States lost 2,116 state government police personnel from the calendar year 2020 (102,493) to 100,377 in 2022.

The good news is that, per preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the last available figure in June of 2024, local government police personnel rebounded to 426,210.

There are endless references from police groups that major cities are severely understaffed. I suspect that the decline in police officers predates my numbers above, thus a decrease in police officers over time may provide a partial explanation for decreased arrests.

But what about crime data? The question is whether violent crimes have decreased or increased.

There are two USDOJ measures of crime in the United States. One is based on crimes reported to law enforcement, as articulated by the FBI, and that’s what people are basing the reduction in violent crime on. Yes, homicides are obviously the most reported and reliable crime statistic.

No one disputes the drop in homicides or the overall violence reduction in cities based on crimes reported to the police.

The problem? It would take several additional pages of explanations as to the endless problems surrounding the use of reported crimes, so I’ll stick with the most obvious: the vast majority of what we call crime is not reported to the police.

Seventy percent of what we call crime are property events and, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 30 percent of those are reported to the police. Close to half of violent crimes are reported.

Per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics recent report, 38 percent of urban violent crimes are reported.

“But”

But per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (what the US Census calls the premier method of counting crimes in America), we had a large increase in rates of violent crime in 2022 (44 percent), and rates have remained almost unchanged for 2023 and the latest-most recent report for 2024.

The National Crime Victimization Survey states that urbanviolence increased in its latest 2024 report. Independant alalyists say that violent and property crimes are falling considerably in cities.

One source claims the increase in rates of violent crime is 80 percent, based on the National Crime Victimization Survey. That finding, however, includes a baseline of 2020 when the pandemic raged, and surveys and counts of crime were impacted.

So it’s plausible, based on the totality of crime as measured by the National Crime Victimization Survey, that there have been historic increases in violent crime during recent years. The NCVS does not count homicides (you can’t interview dead people), and it excludes business crimes, those under the age of 12, and other categories.

We should also note that, per Gallup, the overwhelming majority of those polled express fear or concern about crime, with half expressing serious concerns.

The bottom line is that arrests (and crimes solved) have decreased since 2019, but that could be due to the loss of police officers.

Then there is a question as to whether violent crime is increasing or decreasing, per the two primary US Department of Justice crime reports.

But criminologists continue to maintain that there is no provable explanation for the current and past reductions in crime, regardless of data from the USDOJ.