Watching the debate last week was absolutely infuriating. Every American, regardless of political party, should be infuriated at seeing the clearly biased "moderators" who pretend to be unbiased journalists effectively intefering in our elections to advance the agenda of a leftist media company. As a former broadcast news producer, I was disgusted at the total lack of integrity shown - and the fact that the self-proclaimed arbitrators of "truth" at ABC are just the opposite.
And so our team decided to fight back against their disinformation warfare with the very data that they conveniently not just ignored, but seemingly hid from you. Our expert, Leonard Sipes, dove deep into that data and presents in below. His analysis shows that per the newly released National Crime Victimization Survey data from the USDOJ, the US experienced the largest increase in violent crime (44 percent) in the nation’s history in 2022. That increase largely continues in their newly offered report for 2023.
Here's his report and a full examination of the data for 2023’s National Crime Victimization Survey. It proves very clearly that President Trump was RIGHT - and it's just one of the MANY reasons why we have proudly announced our endorsement of him. You can read more about why we endorsed President Trump here.
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Author Note
Below is mostly vocabulary taken from the US Department’s National Crime Victimization Survey. Readers are encouraged to peruse the full report. There are explanations under each chart that explain nuances in the data provided.
Please note that the data below is a combination of rates, numbers, and multiple years which can be confusing in interpreting results.
The Facts
There are two primary reports from the US Department of Justice on crime. One is based on crimes reported to law enforcement and compiled by the FBI. The vast majority of crime is not reported to police and is not included in FBI reports.
For 2022, approximately 40 percent of violent crime was reported to law enforcement per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics. For property crime, it was approximately 30 percent. Per USDOJ agencies, approximately 25 percent of juvenile crime was reported. For identity theft, approximately 7 percent of incidents were reported.11,634 hate crime incidents were reported to the FBI and 247,000 yearly hate crime incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ NCVS.
Yet we choose to make policy largely based on crime reported to law enforcement as reported by the FBI. When the FBI releases data for 2023 (soon), it will be widely covered by mainstream media. It represents reported crime, not total crime.
The other national report is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics which involves a yearly survey. The survey is over 50 years old and was created to include all criminal activity in the US except homicides (you can’t interview dead persons).
The criminological community has traditionally supported the National Crime Victimization Survey as a far more accurate overview of crime in the United States. Crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI range from 1.2 to 1.3 million violent crimes annually to 6.5 to 7 million property crimes annually.
When combining all categories, the total number of reported crimes typically ranges between 7 and 8 million each year compared to the 40 million plus figure via the NCVS (including identity theft).
Current Media Coverage
However, even after 50 years of existence, most people (and most reporters) are unfamiliar with the National Crime Victimization Survey. What I’m reading in the days after the release of the 2023 NCVS report is a mind-boggling combination of politics and punditry.
Most in the mainstream media haven’t posted articles on the newly released NCVS which is more than a bit concerning due to fear of crime being at record levels per Gallup and crime being a significant issue for voters in the upcoming election per Pew. The National Crime Victimization Survey can be challenging to read and understand. We have lost most of our savvy and knowledgeable crime reporters as the overall media is hampered by losses in revenue and personnel.
But why would the mainstream media ignore the largest increase in violent crime in our nation’s history? Would we do the same for massive increases in cancer or poverty?
The National Crime Victimization Survey Breaks Their Findings Down By:
Victimization estimates—The total number of times that persons or households were victims of crime. For personal crimes, the number of victimizations is the number of victims of that crime. Each crime against a household is counted as having a single victim: the affected household.
Incident estimates—The number of specific criminal acts involving one or more victims.
Prevalence estimates—The number or percentage of unique persons who were crime victims, or of unique households that experienced crime.
Most of this article will focus on victimization estimates because that’s what the US Department of Justice principally offers.
What Other Articles On Crime Are Saying-Or Not Saying
What follows is based on what the US Department of Justice said, and my observations to provide context.
Some analysts are anxious to take a long-range view of crime to point out that there have been substantial reductions in crime in the past, which is correct, but that ended in 2015 with significant increases in violence and serious violence per the National Crime Victimization Survey.
Citizens and policymakers are interested in what’s happening now, not in 1990. Either violence and crime increased or decreased or remained largely the same in recent years. Everything else is a history lesson.
It’s not a matter of candidates Trump or Harris being correct or incorrect; the data should speak for itself. The issue is citizen safety and their perceptions of crime. We have a record fear of crime per Gallup and crime is at the top of multiple lists of election concerns. Crime news is a topic of concern only exceeded by the weather. Per data, crime is a principal reason for people moving.
Yet there are articles in major publications belittling those concerned about crime. They are described in less than flattering terms. Per the recent data from the NCVS, their concerns seem justified.
We had a chance to ask why there was a dramatic increase in violence in 2022 but the criminological community and the media chose to ignore it. We had an opportunity to study the findings and advance our understanding of violent crime. I’m guessing we will do the same for the current NCVS report. Democracy (and public safety) dies in the darkness.
I will try to be factual based on what the US Department of Justice provided. Again, I add observations for context.
Observations-Conclusions
The National Crime Victimization Survey in a 2023 report for the calendar year 2022 offered the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent) per analyst Jeff Asher, and The Marshall Project. The Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide the percentage increase (but they have provided percentage increases multiple times in the past).
Per the press release (September 12) from the US Department of Justice for the new 2023 report, “Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, which was similar to the 2022 rate of 23.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.”
Per the September 12 USDOJ press release headline, “Violent victimization unchanged year over year…”
That means that the record 44 percent increase in US violence largely continues from 2022 to 2023. It remains the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history.
Many of us who write about crime expected a reduction in violent crime via the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023 simply because the increases were monumentally high for the last report for 2022. Our assumption of “what goes up comes down” did not occur for rates of overall violence. The huge increase in violence and juvenile crime (separate NCVS report) for 2022 largely remains for 2023.
All of this is occurring while the FBI and others are recording decreases in most forms of violent and property crime in calendar years 2023 and 2024 (first quarter) based on approximately 40 percent of reported violent crimes and approximately 30 percent of property crimes being reported.
Is there something seriously wrong with observations based on crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI? If the National Crime Victimization Survey is recording RECORD increases in violent crime for 2022 “and” 2023 and FBI data indicates considerable decreases, then there must be reasons that have little to do with actual crime counts.
Per the NCVS, a smaller percentage of robbery victimizations in 2023 (42%) than in 2022 (64%) were reported to police which could partially explain some of the decrease in FBI violent victimizations. The reduction in reported robberies is huge.
Per the NCVS, the percentage of motor vehicle thefts reported to police decreased from 81% in 2022 to 72% in 2023. Those of us writing about crime were massively puzzled by the decrease in vehicle theft reported by the FBI. After huge increases, vehicle theft suddenly decreases. The factors that contributed to vehicle theft (i.e., certain models are easy to steal) haven’t changed.
There was a considerable increase in vehicle theft numbers and rates in the NCVS while FBI numbers declined.
The rate of property victimization in urban areas increased from 176.1 per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 per 1,000 in 2023, yet the FBI is reporting decreases.
There are encouraging increases in the percentage of crimes reported to law enforcement. There is a huge gain in sexual assaults reported but domestic violence and intimate partner-reported
What we see as increases in FBI data “may” be a result of more reported violent crimes. 44.7 percent of violent crimes were reported in 2023 versus 41.5 percent in 2022. That’s a big increase.
However, the percentage of reported property crimes declined. Per the NCVS, 29.9 percent were reported in 2023 versus 31.8 percent in 2022. Please note that, traditionally, property crimes make up approximately 80 percent of all crimes.
Of the more than 6.4 million violent victimizations in 2023, about 9% involved a firearm, which was not significantly different from the percentage in 2022. Firearm violent crime reporting increased considerably. About 75% of firearm victimizations were reported to police in 2023, up from 61% in 2022.
In the first chart below, violence rates and numbers of individual categories of violence were mostly higher in 2022-2023 than in 2019-2021-2022.
In an NCVS chart not offered in this article, the overall experience with property crimes largely mimics the experience with violent crime (based on totals) with some categories up (vehicle theft) and some down (burglary).
Violent crime and serious violent crime increased for Blacks but decreased for Whites and Hispanics from 2022-2023. If we have record increases in violence for 2022-2023, it seems to be falling mostly on African Americans.
There is a significant increase in Blacks reporting violent crimes to law enforcement from 2022 to 2023.
The number of firearm violence decreased from 2022 to 2023, from 640,710 to 575,340.
Victim service providers (VSPs) are public or private organizations that assist crime victims. Victims received VSP assistance in 8% of violent victimizations in 2023, similar to 2022.
In 2023, the share of violent incidents involving male victims (45%) was lower than the share of males in the U.S. population (49%), while the proportion of violent incidents with female victims (55%) was higher than the proportion of females in the population (51%). There was a time when female victimization was considerably less than that of males.
The share of violent incidents involving white (54%) or Hispanic (14%) offenders was lower than the share of white (60%) or Hispanic (18%) persons in the population. The proportion of violent incidents with Black offenders (24%) was higher than the proportion of Black persons in the population (12%).
The percentages of violent incidents involving victims (33%) or offenders (23%) ages 18 to 29 were higher than this age group’s share of the population (18%). The shares of incidents where the victims (58%) or offenders (62%) were age 30 or older was lower than this age group’s proportion of the population (73%).
Where is crime happening?
The New Report: National Crime Victimization Survey-US Department of Justice
Note: Excerpts from the Bureau of Justice Statistics report along with select charts are below. It’s principally verbiage from the report. It sometimes repeats what’s offered above but I want readers to see it mostly unfiltered by my observations (there are a few). It’s also helpful to review the charts offered.
In 2023, the rate of violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, which was similar to the 2022 rate. Violent victimization includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. While the 2023 rate was higher than those in 2020 and 2021, it was not statistically different from 5 years ago, in 2019.
The rate of violent victimization reported to police was consistent from 2022 to 2023 (10.1 per 1,000 persons). The 2023 rate was higher than the 2020 (6.6 per 1,000) and 2021 (7.5 per 1,000) rates but was comparable to 5 years ago in 2019 and consistent with the overall downward trend since 1993 (33.8 per 1,000) (emphasis added).
Highlights
In 2023, there were 22.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in the United States.
The rate of violent victimization excluding (
A smaller percentage of robbery victimizations that occurred in 2023 (42%) than in 2022 (64%) were reported to police.
The percentage of motor vehicle thefts reported to police decreased from 81% in 2022 to 72%in 2023.
About 9% of violent victimizations involved a firearm in 2023, similar to 2022.
The percentage of persons age 12 or older who experienced at least one violent victimization declined from 1.51% in 2022 to 1.36% in 2023.
A lower percentage of households were victims of burglary or trespassing in 2023 (1.01%) than in 2022 (1.12%).
The rate of property victimization in urban areas (emphasis added) increased from 176.1 per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 per 1,000 in 2023.
My observation, per the first chart offered below, the rates and numbers for overall violent crime remain similar for 2022 and 2023 with small decreases in most numbers “or” rates except for robberies, simple assault (the majority of violent crimes), and stranger violence. Vehicle thefts continued to increase.
Victimizations
Victimizations reflect the total number of times that persons or households were victims of crime. There were 6.4 million violent victimizations of persons age 12 or older in the United States in 2023, which was not significantly different from the number in 2022 (emphasis added) or 5 years ago in 2019.
Victimization rates measure the extent to which violent and property victimizations occur in a specified population during a specified time. In 2023, the rate of violent victimization was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, higher than in 2021 (16.5 per 1,000) but not significantly different from 2022.
From 2022 to 2023, there were no significant changes in the rates of specific violent crime types.
Number And Rates Of Violent Victimizations-Chart-Click To Enlarge
Crime Victimizations In The US
Property Victimizations-See Full Report For Chart
The number of property victimizations in 2023 was similar to the number in 2022. Households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property victimizations in 2023. The number of property victimizations was comparable to the number in 2022 but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019 (emphasis added). Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft.
The rate of property victimization remained stable from 2022 to 2023 (102.2 victimizations per 1,000 households) and was similar to the rate in 2019. There were no significant differences in the rates of specific types of property victimizations between 2022 and 2023.
Over the past 5 years, the motor vehicle theft rate increased from 3.9 per 1,000 households in 2019 to 6.1 per 1,000 in 2023, while the burglary or trespassing rate decreased from 17.2 per 1,000 to 13.1 per 1,000.
Victimizations Reported To Law Enforcement-Chart-Click To Enlarge
Urban-Suburban-Rural Crime
The rate of property victimization in urban areas increased from 2022 to 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the rate of property victimization in urban areas increased from 176.1 victimizations per 1,000 households to 192.3 per 1,000.
In 2023, the rate of violent victimization in urban areas was 29.6 per 1,000 persons, which was not significantly different from the rate in 2022. Neither the rate of property nor of violent victimization in suburban and rural areas changed significantly from 2022 to 2023.
Firearm Victimizations
In 2023, 9% of violent victimizations involved a firearm. Of the more than 6.4 million violent victimizations in 2023, about 9% involved a firearm (table 10), which was not significantly different from the percentage in 2022. Firearm victimizations are violent victimizations where the offender possessed, showed, or used a firearm.
About 75% of firearm victimizations were reported to police in 2023, up from 61% in 2022
Background
Findings are based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), a self-report survey administered annually from January 1 to December 31. Annual NCVS estimates are based on the number and characteristics of crimes that respondents experienced during the prior 6 months, excluding the month in which they were interviewed.
Therefore, the 2023 survey covers crimes experienced from July 1, 2022 to November 30, 2023, with March 15, 2023, as the middle of the reference period. Crimes are classified by the year of the survey and not by the year of the crime. To make reliable comparisons over time, this report examines only NCVS data collected since the survey’s 1993 redesign.
My observation, NCVS methodologies are peer-reviewed and constantly scrutinized for accuracy. Their format is similar to the US Census. However, the Bureau of Justice Statistics is currently conducting studies to improve results.
A Different Analysis
Readers may want to see analyst Jeff Asher’s take on the National Crime Victimization Survey’s 2023 report.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Comments
2024-09-16T20:26-0400 | Comment by: D
Excellent article. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe in the last 3 years agencies can now just estimate department crime reports to the FBI. Which is usually just a copy of the previous years numbers bc they're so overrun with real work
2024-09-16T20:26-0400 | Comment by: D
Excellent article. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe in the last 3 years agencies can now just estimate department crime reports to the FBI. Which is usually just a copy of the previous years numbers bc they're so overrun with real work
2024-09-16T20:26-0400 | Comment by: D
Excellent article. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe in the last 3 years agencies can now just estimate department crime reports to the FBI. Which is usually just a copy of the previous years numbers bc they're so overrun with real work