Originally published by Mr. Sipes on Crime in America.
I’ve been reading RAND’s research for decades. Their devotion to precise crime data has always been appreciated. RAND researchers decades ago helped popularize findings showing that a relatively small percentage of offenders commit a disproportionate share of serious crimes.
What’s below is from a document titled, The Impact of Firearm Violence in Black Communities. While I summarize the research, readers are encouraged to read the document for sources and possible remediations.
Most of what’s below comes directly from RAND.
While the impact of violence in the Black community is disproportionate, “the focus on mental and physical health, economics, and school test scores is well-documented in all high-crime communities,” regardless of race.
While Black victimization or offending is disproportionate, the majority of those arrested, prosecuted, jailed, on parole and probation, or in prison are not Black, per data from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Geography and income play a major role in violent crime. There are thousands of middle and high-income Black communities where violent crime is rare.
But there are also areas of the US (i.e., Appalachia) with economic struggles, a history of economic discrimination, high rates of gun ownership, and considerable substance abuse issues, but where stranger-to-stranger violent crime is very low.
Traditional criminological inequities apply differently depending on the community. Low income, demographics, location, firearm ownership, or other correlates do not mean high crime.
Alaska has one of the highest crime rates per capita in the US, according to a variety of surveys. Yet the Alaskan Black community is 3% to 4% of the population.
The Context Of Violent Crime Is Necessary
The context of violent crime needs consideration. Per the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the overall violent crime rate for Blacks (23.4) and Whites (22.1) is similar. The percentage of violent crimes reported to the police is higher for Blacks than for Whites. The raw number of violent incidents for Whites is far higher than for Blacks. In 2023, the total victimization rate at school for white students (24.3 per 1,000) was higher than the rate for black students (12.2 per 1,000).
As to income, those earning less than $25,000 have a violent crime rate of 38.3, whereas the violent crime rate for those earning $100,000 to $199,000 is 17.4. Yet there are low-income communities where crime is not an issue. I grew up in a working-class community in Baltimore decades ago, where crime was uncommon.
RAND’s research focuses on firearm violence. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the US Department of Justice, “Firearm violence accounted for 10% of all violent crimes; about 6% were committed with a knife or other sharp object such as scissors, ice pick, or broken bottle; 4% with blunt objects such as a brick, bat, or bottle; and 5% were committed with unspecified ”other” objects used as weapons.” The most recent report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics continues to offer the 10 percent firearm use figure. Note, however, that the majority of homicides involve firearms.
I present the data above to underscore that violent crime in the US is complex. It’s not just a matter of income, geography, guns, race, or any other variable. Every community will have unique issues.
RAND’s focus on violence within the Black community is valuable; no known recent reviews have addressed the question of how firearm violence drives adverse outcomes in Black communities.
But we need to acknowledge that there are multiple non-Black communities where violent crime remains a considerable problem.
Additional Data
Additional data from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics is available at Arrests And Crime Victims By Race And Ethnicity.
Firearm violence occurs disproportionately in Black communities. The broader impact of exposure to firearm violence on health and prosperity is still an area of emerging study.
This review of articles that were published over ten years (2015 to 2025) focuses on that impact; it is intended to support policymakers in the public health, education, economic, and criminal justice sectors and violence prevention researchers and advocates, as both groups work to prioritize and implement effective public safety strategies.
Background
Firearms kill a disproportionate number of Black people. Non-Hispanic Black people have the highest homicide rates of any racial or ethnic group in the United States, and firearms are used in 80 percent of all homicides.
Estimates indicate that around one in every 38 Black men and one in every 287 Black women will die at the hands of a firearm.
Black people also experienced nonfatal firearm assaults at a rate 20-fold higher than their White counterparts, suffering 61.5 percent of all firearm assaults.
In addition, in the United States, firearm homicides with Black victims cost society an estimated 140.48 billion dollars in 2020.
A nationally representative study of Black people found that of 3,015 adults surveyed, 41 percent reported that a friend or family member had been shot, and 38 percent reported witnessing or hearing about a shooting in their neighborhood.
In low-income communities, community firearm violence exposure can be even higher: As much as 80 percent of sampled Black residents reported hearing gunshots in their neighborhood multiple times.
Black women in the west and northeast of the country are around two or seven times more likely, respectively, than White women in those regions to be killed by a firearm.
The research focuses on how firearm violence can cause harm to the community, not only an individual or family. Although there have been other reviews on the broad impacts of firearm violence, no known recent reviews have addressed the question of how firearm violence drives adverse outcomes in Black communities.
This review focuses on literature from the past ten years to provide insight into how firearm violence affects Black lives across multiple domains, such as health, education, employment, and wealth.
Firearm Violence and Physical Health Outcomes
The impact of firearm injury exposure on chronic health is critical to understand because chronic disease is the primary cause of death and disability in the United States.
One mechanism by which the stress of exposure to firearm violence might affect chronic disease is found in the concept of allostatic load, which is a measure of physiological dysregulation caused by stress.
Another area of interest in evaluating the impact of firearm injury on health in Black communities includes what we have characterized as general health, which is often measured by composite health scores, combinations of physical symptoms, or the frequency of health-related visits. As might be expected, this body of literature points toward negative effects from exposure to firearm violence on a variety of global health outcomes and health care utilization.
Mortality, Premature Death, and Years of Life Lost
Firearm-related violence has long been a driver of premature death for Black people in the United States. Black individuals experience disproportionate potential years of life lost. This loss of life among younger generations in Black communities can create a unique form of trauma for survivors.
Those who survive their initial injury are also at elevated risk of later death by homicide. In a multicenter study in California of children who survived an initial firearm injury, two-thirds of long-term deaths over a 14-year study period were because of homicide.
Recurrent Firearm Injury
Several longitudinal studies found a significantly elevated risk of repeat firearm injury among individuals who survived an initial injury. A study in St. Louis noted that most patients presenting for an initial firearm injury were Black (87 percent), and recurrent injuries were more common for Black patients (96 percent).
Similar patterns regarding the risk of reinjury have been found in pediatric patients, especially Black youth. A study of Maryland hospitals found that, although 3.1 percent of children with nonfatal firearm injuries presented with a second firearm injury, a significant number of those injuries were fatal (25 percent).
Chronic Disease
Numerous predominantly cross-sectional studies reported on chronic disease or chronic disease-related health behaviors, such as physical activity, in individuals and communities exposed to firearm violence or violent crime. Most studies found that violent crime exposure is associated with cardiovascular health.
This data highlights the possibility that firearm violence may be affecting maternal health both before and during pregnancy.
Neighborhood General Health
The study that showed the strongest association between community firearm violence and general health leveraged a database of neighborhoods in 100 U.S. cities from 2014 to 2019. Firearm violence was associated with poor overall neighborhood health in the majority of the study years; the most consistent relationships were between firearm violence and health behaviors, as well as health status.
The majority of available data suggests that nonfatal firearm injury survivors experience a cascade of physical health problems even after their initial injuries have healed, corresponding to worse physical health assessments and greater hospital service use compared with the general population or other trauma patients.
Physical Disability and Injury Complications
Community-level analysis is limited on the prevalence of disability from firearm injury. Rates of functional disabilities were higher in neighborhoods with high rates of violence, and nonfatal shootings were associated with increased community disability in young men aged 18–34.
Firearm Violence and Mental Health Outcomes
Five classes of mental health impacts from firearm violence were studied specific to Black communities: depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), other mental health conditions, mental health care treatment, and substance use.
The best evidence for mental health impacts from firearm violence comes from longitudinal studies of Black and non-Black individuals rather than whole communities. The literature nevertheless shows a clear association between firearm violence exposure and poor mental health.
Other Mental Health Conditions
We identified two community-level studies that estimated a causal effect of firearm violence on other mental health conditions. These studies used data from 16,000 neighborhoods in 100 cities over five years (2014 to 2019) and found that firearm violence in the year prior was significantly associated with poorer general health status, poorer self-reported mental health (percentage of adult residents who report 14 or more days in the past month of “not good” mental health), and insufficient sleep. These studies were not specific to Black communities.
Substance Use
These findings suggest that substance use vulnerability may increase following firearm violence exposure for Black people and high-risk populations (pregnant women), but the evidence is still inconclusive for Black communities.
Firearm Violence and Educational Declines
Our review found compelling evidence that community firearm violence hurts academic outcomes and enrollment. However, none of the community studies were specific to Black communities, highlighting a gap in our understanding of the unique impact of violence on educational outcomes for communities that already experience disparities in educational opportunity.
The associations between firearm violence and educational attainment and enrollment are further echoed by a larger body of literature focused on the individual effects of firearm exposure, community violence, and crime.
Exposure to violence can lead to distracting or intrusive thoughts, increased concerns about security, and negative effects on memory, potentially affecting students’ ability to focus on school work and their commutes to and from school. Community violence exposure can also give rise to individual psychological or behavioral problems (e.g., depression or substance use), which can affect students’ focus, engagement, and aspirations about school.
Firearm violence can have layered impacts on communities, denying students in highly affected communities an education free from fear and negatively affecting future achievement.
RAND’s Concluding Statement
Emerging research shows links between firearm violence and poor life outcomes, but additional rigorous research is needed to establish the true costs of firearm violence in Black communities and the cost-benefit of interventions that successfully reduce it.
Increased insight as to what firearm violence alone does to Black community growth and prosperity is critical to change the legacy of Black health, wealth, and advancement in the United States.
Multitiered prevention and intervention efforts and policies strategically implemented in communities harmed by firearm violence, many of which are Black communities, can promote public health and well-being and address the long-standing harms that have affected Black communities for generations.
Comments