Are we being lied to? Crime is up, crime is down; who is right?

Like declining inflation, most Americans don’t feel the change which is why the economy leads the nation’s voter priorities.

Like crime, most Americans don’t feel safer which is why the topic is a leading concern of voters.

What does the data say? Do we need to expand our understanding of crime?

I have a reader request to create a list of the sources stating that recent crime is either up or down. 

She’s reacting to: (Reuters) – President Joe Biden celebrated large drops in crime rates across the U.S. last year (editor’s note-2023). “Last year, the United States had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime in more than 50 years,” Additional sources are stating that crime is at record lows. I assume that they are basing their conclusions on crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI.

Issues

The issue seems to be whether or not you are willing to embrace federal and Gallup survey data (plus other sources) along with crimes reported to law enforcement as recorded by the FBI. Conclusions could change based on what sources and years you use. Again, the focus is on recent years; you can prove anything if you go back far enough.

Understanding Crime Means Expanding Our Horizons

So what constitutes crime? We’ve always known that fear of crime is based on signs or feelings of disorder, not just crime statistics. If an elderly person loses $10,000 from their bank account due to fraud, does that count? If a store closes due to retail crime, or if juveniles are threatening violence, should these events be considered part of the crime experience?

To understand crime “or” fear of crime, we need to expand our horizons. Crime, as understood by citizens, is far more than reported robberies or burglaries. It’s anything that threatens their sense of physical or emotional well-being for themselves, their families, or their community. That means looking at data beyond crimes reported to the police.

Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement

The vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice. Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey, 42 percent of violent crime is reported. Thirty-two percent of property crimes are reported to the police and eventually, the FBI. It’s dramatically less for juvenile and cybercrimes.

Thus, data released from the FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) are a small percentage of total crimes, so I suggest that anything over or under ten percent may be misleading (or of little value).

We Have Never Lived In Safer Times?

Yet every article I read and every newscast I see simply states that crime is up or down without a hint of an explanation as to what that means.

I’m told that we have never lived in safer times. It’s suggested that crime is at record lows. Again, I’m pretty sure all of this is based on crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI.

Please note that it’s the US Department of Justice’s traditional interpretation that “official” crime data is reserved for non-preliminary, full-year figures (I worked for their clearinghouse as a senior specialist), and the only numbers that fit that criteria are 2020-2022 data released in the fall of the following year.

Most of this article will focus on violent crime.

2023-Crime Is Down-FBI Findings-Full-Year Preliminary Data

We’ll start with 2023 preliminary statistics for 2023 because that’s what’s getting most of the attention. I assume that President Biden’s assertions are based on 2023 FBI data.

Preliminary full-year crime statistics from the FBI in 2023 state that there were decreases in all crime categories except vehicle theft.

Crimes for metropolitan areas “and” nonmetropolitan areas were offered.

Overall, violent crime fell by 5.7 percent. Murder decreased by 13.2 percent. Aggravated Assaults went down by 4.8 percent. The numbers were offered in March of 2024.

However

Except for homicides and rapes, (tiny numbers compared to overall violent crimes) most of the decreases in metropolitan areas (where the vast majority of Americans live) are rather small. Robberies increased a bit. Motor vehicle theft increased substantially.

Aggravated assaults (the vast majority of measured violent crimes) decreased by 1.7 percent which influenced a small decrease in overall violence at 3.1 percent (almost flat). Decreases in property crimes were also much lower in metropolitan areas.

The full-year “official” FBI report for 2023 will be released in the Fall of 2024.

2022-The Nation’s Largest Increase In Violent Crime-Full-Year Official Data

The latest full-year final crime data showing increases in violent crime is the National Crime Victimization Survey. The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ did not provide the percentage increase (as they have in previous reports). The 44 percent increase in 2022 comes from  Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project. There was a huge increase in violence among groups. The data was released in the Fall of 2023.

To my knowledge, it’s the largest increase in violent crime ever reported. The survey is considered by many to be far more accurate than FBI data based on the big difference in the numbers examined. To date, the media has ignored the report. The survey does not measure homicides (you can’t interview dead people).

It’s the latest full-year “official” crime data.

2022-Violence Is Flat-FBI Findings-Full-Year Oficial Data

The FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates (essentially flat).

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year. The data was offered in the fall of 2023.

It’s the latest full-year “official” crime data.

2021-Homicides Increase-FBI Findings-Full-Year Official Data

2021-Homicides increased 4.3 percent in 2021. Rapes also increased. Overall violence in the nation was flat.

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey, overall violence was flat with increases in urban areas.

2020-Homicides Explode-FBI Findings-Full-Year Official Data

The number of homicides increased by nearly 30% from 2019. In 2020, violent crime was up 5.6 percent.

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime dropped 22 percent.

Additional Data

There Is additional data to consider to place the issue of recent crime (especially violent crime) into perspective.

The Hill: “Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe crime is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the U.S., according to a Gallup poll.”

By my estimation, approximately 75,000,000 Americans were victimized in 2022 including violent and property crimes, cybercrime, and identity theft. It’s safe to suggest that tens of millions of Americans are victimized by crime every year.

If you combine violent and property crime with cybercrime and identity theft, most American households may be victimized by crime yearly.

The 2021 US firearm homicides (81 percent of all murders) were the highest since the 1990s, Centers For Disease Control (CDC) data show. They recorded an 8.3 percent increase in 2021, CNN.

The risk of victimization while a person was out in public rose by nearly 40% by April 2020, National Academy Of Sciences.

Per Gallup, there is a big increase in the criminal victimization of urban households in 2021, 30 percent compared to 22 percent in 2020. Seven percent of urban residents were violently victimized compared to 3% of U.S. adults. The collective data (urban crime victimization-computer crime) indicates a growing crime problem for at least half of American households.

If you go to the full-year report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association for 2023, you will see plenty of cities where homicides and other crime categories increased (scroll through the report).

Juvenile crime seems to be exploding in some cities. Although no data focuses solely on the extent of juvenile crime, juveniles now have the highest age numbers, by far, for homicides, sex offenses, and robberies.

Cybercrimes are more costly than street crimes and cause immense emotional distress.  Per the FBI, cybercrime almost doubled from 2019 to 2023 with 37 billion in losses while recognizing that most are not reported.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ, 23 million persons were victims of identity theft during the prior 12 months in 2023 costing 15.1 billion dollars.  This is numerically far more than the 4 million victims from 2019 to 2023 identified by the FBI for overall cybercrimes. The 23 million crime identity theft victims are also far more than the 14 million general crime victims identified by the FBI in 2022.

Retail “shrinkage” (losses due to crime) is 112 billion dollars and rising rapidly.

Summation-Is Crime Up Or Down?

You could make a case either way depending on the years and data used, but it’s hard to overcome the huge-record increase in violent crime (44 percent) per the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2022 released in the fall of 2023.

But let’s focus on FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) data because I believe that’s what people use to claim decreases in crime.

Per the FBI, homicides are down for 2022-2023 after rising considerably in previous years. The Major Cities Chiefs Association (reported crimes) stated that homicides rose 50 percent and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent in the cities measured from 2019-2022 thus a decrease in homicides was expected regardless of interventions.

2023: Overall crime decreases in 2023 are considered preliminary (thus unofficial) statistics per an email from the FBI, but in metropolitan areas (where most Americans live), the decreases were significantly lower for overall crime and violence (with exceptions for homicides and rapes).

2022: Per FBI data, violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7 percent in 2022 (flat). Murder decreased 6.1%

2021: Per the FBI, overall violent crime was flat for 2021. Homicides increased 4.3 percent in 2021. Rapes also increased.

2020: Per the FBI, the number of homicides increased by nearly 30% in 2020. Violent crime was up 5.6 percent.

I’m guessing that the President is basing his data on preliminary-unofficial decreases in homicides in 2023 (13.2 percent) when the last big decrease in murders was in 1996, 10.6 percent. 

I guess that if you are willing to go back to the year the first flip mobile phone went on sale (1996), or go back 50 years per the President to 1973 when The Godfather was released, you could prove anything.

Just note that homicides or violent crime may go up or down when the FBI’s final report for 2023 is released in the fall of 2024.

So no, when considering the totality of crime data for recent years (2020-2023) listed above, or the totality of FBI numbers, or the totality of National Crime Victimization Survey data, I see no evidence of record decreases.

It’s recent years that people base their perceptions of violence or overall crime.

Like declining inflation, most Americans don’t feel the change which is why the economy leads the nation’s voter priorities per Pew.

Like crime, most Americans don’t feel safer which is why the topic is one of the leading concerns of voters per Pew, especially when you combine all crime-related topics and data.