The
report below represents
preliminary data from the
USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) offered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). An expanded analysis and charts are below.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is the nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization occurring in the United States.
The NCVS is administered to persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. The survey collects information on nonfatal personal and household property crimes, including those that are reported and not reported to police.
To my knowledge, the BJS has never issued a preliminary crime report in the past. Yes, there is an upcoming national election.
The NCVS is considered to be much more accurate than crimes r
eportedto law enforcement, as offered by the FBI. The numbers for the NCVS are much larger than FBI data and, generally speaking, the larger the numbers, the more accurate the findings. Both measures have limitations. The NCVS is subject to sampling and reporting error; FBI statistics depend on crimes becoming known to police and on agency reporting.
Other countries use the same crime survey philosophy because the majority of crimes there are also not reported to the police thus the need for surveys to understand the full scope of crime.
How BJS Compared 2025 With 2024 Using Its Redesigned Survey
BJS says that older data before 2025 is not part of their new redesign.
But in using 2024 data, BJS divided the NCVS sample between the old and redesigned questionnaires. That allowed it to produce two separate sets of estimates for the same year.
The regular (legacy) Criminal Victimization, 2024 report used the old questionnaire, while the subsequent redesign report presented the new questionnaire’s estimates. In January 2025, BJS fully transitioned to the redesigned instrument.
This allowed BJS to compare their redesigned 2025 findings with 2024 data using the redesigned instrument.
Interesting Things To Consider
This discussion provides concrete evidence that the NCVS redesign affects the estimates and results, rather than merely a general warning that the survey has changed.
The 2025 report is preliminary. To my knowledge, the BJS hasn’t used preliminary reports in the past.
The final will be interesting to read to see if the 25 percent violent rate reduction holds. FBI preliminary crime reports tend to cite more crime than final reports (but they are two entirely separate counts of crime using different criteria).
The 2025 BJS report excluded simple assaults, the largest category for violent crime.
When simple assault is included, the overall rate of violent victimization fell from 28.7 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 25.7 in 2025. That represents a decline of approximately 10.5%, rather than 25%. BJS’s table does not identify this overall decline as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The 25% decline in violent victimization excluding simple assault, by contrast, is statistically significant at that level.
The exclusion of simple assault does not, by itself, explain the decline. Simple assault is excluded from both sides (2025 versus 2024) of the 25 percent reduction in rates of violent crime comparison. The decline is what BJS reports for the remaining violent crime categories.
The rate of violent victimization in the 2024 NCVS-R (using the new research instrument) was 28.7 victimizations per 1,000 persons
age 12 or older. This rate
was 23% higher than the rate of violent victimization in the 2024 NCVS-L (using the old instrument—23.3 per 1,000). Violent victimization included rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault,
and simple assault.
It’s hard to understand how this experiment uses the new research instrument (the redesigned survey uses revised questions and expanded prompts intended to identify criminal victimization more effectively) and created a 23 percent increase in violent crime in 2024 (beyond already high rates of violent crime in 2024), yet 2025 NCVS results offered a 25 percent decrease in violent crime.
However, the 23 percent increase in 2024 does not disprove the preliminary 25 percent decline for 2025. The two percentages measure different things. The 23 percent figure compares two survey instruments in the same year (2024) and includes simple assault. The 25 percent decrease in 2025 compares 2024 with 2025 using the redesigned survey and excludes simple assaults for both.
The 2025 NCVS weights used in this report include a one-time adjustment to account for the absence of data due to missing interviews in October and November, during the lapse in federal government appropriations. BJS adjusted the survey weights to account for the missing interviews.
This adjustment enables the 4 months of data collected in July, August, September, and December of 2025 to represent the second half of 2025.
National Crime Victimization Survey Reports For Recent Years—Huge Increase In Violent Crime Until 2025
Now, the Bureau of Justice Statistics states that, per preliminary data, the rate of violent crime declined 25 percent in 2025.
BJS excluded simple assaults in its 2024-2025 preliminary report.
Excluding simple assaults from the BJS preliminary report makes a big difference. In 2024 (the last full NCVS report), simple assaults were 4,126,640 and aggravated assaults numbered 1,341,950.
The
last full NCVS report from the BJS in 2024 recorded 5,468,590 assaults (both aggravated and simple) out
ot a total of 6,671,640 violent crimes.
Yet simple assaults were not used in the 2024-2025 NCVS redesigned comparisons; thus, the exclusion became a moot point. But it remains very important when describing the finding to the public: the 25 percent decline does not cover all violent victimization.
Is The 25 Percent Reduction in the 2025 Rates Of Violent Crime Accurate?
I don’t think that the Bureau of Justice Statistics would create inaccurate crime statistics, but the redesign raises a lot of interesting questions mentioned in this article.
The NCVS-R instrument (the new survey) incorporates expanded screener probes and more behaviorally specific language to improve measurement, so BJS expected that it would produce larger estimates of victimization. That obviously did not happen for the 2025 decrease.
The redesigned instrument produced higher estimates than the legacy instrument in the 2024 split-sample comparison. That finding helps demonstrate why the redesign matters.
The 25 percent decline reported for 2025 is a different comparison: it uses the redesigned instrument for both years and excludes simple assault.
FBI Data And NCVS Findings Show Decreases In Violent Crime
The FBI offers reported crime, not all crime, yet the great majority of media and public crime discussions will solely focus on FBI data, which poses ethical and journalistic challenges.
For the
FBI’s 2025 report, violent crime decreased by an estimated 9.3%. Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter decreased by an estimated 18.1%. Rape decreased by an estimated 7.6%. Robbery decreased by an estimated 18.5%. Aggravated assault decreased by an estimated 7,2%. Violent crime also decreased in 2023 and 2024 and continues to decline in
2026.
So for the first time in several years, FBI data and NCVS findings show decreases in violent crime.
BJS Highlights–Violent Victimization Preliminary Estimates
In 2025, U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced 7.5 million violent victimizations—a rate of 25.7 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
The rate of violent crime (excluding simple assaults) declined 25%, from 9.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 7.4 per 1,000 in 2025.
BJS Highlights–Property Crime Preliminary Estimates
Households in the United States experienced 14.9 million property victimizations in 2025.
The rate of property victimization declined 19%, from 138.0 per 1,000 households in 2024 to 111.2 per 1,000 in 2025.
Chart–Bureau of Justice Statistics Violent Crime
Chart—Bureau of Justice Statistics Property Crime
Conclusions
A 25 percent decline in serious violent victimization is encouraging news. But readers should understand exactly what the Bureau of Justice Statistics measured.
The preliminary estimate excludes simple assault and uses the redesigned National Crime Victimization Survey. It compares 2024 and 2025 using the redesigned instrument, and it may change when BJS publishes its final 2025 report in 2027.
The redesign also produced different estimates from the older survey instrument when both were used in 2024. That is an important reason to exercise caution when comparing the redesigned survey with the historical NCVS trend.
The 25 percent figure is BJS’s preliminary estimate for violent victimization excluding simple assault. It should not automatically be interpreted as a 25 percent decline in all violent victimization.
The FBI’s separate statistics also show a substantial decline in reported violent crime in 2025. But the FBI and NCVS measure crime differently, and their figures should not be treated as interchangeable.
The final BJS report, expected in 2027, will be important. For now, the responsible approach is to report the preliminary decline accurately, explain what it covers, and acknowledge the limitations of the data.
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