So it’s impossible to have an honest conversation about crime?

How are crime writers supposed to place violent crime in its proper perspective? How do we factually write about crime when the issue has become so intensively politicized? How do we assist reporters when they are more than willing to ignore the best US Department of Justice data on crime?

Are we at the point when writing factually about crime becomes impossible?

This is the first of a three-part series on the use of crime statistics and research.

Before President Biden’s State Of The Union Speech, I offered an article titled President Biden States That Crime Decreased Considerably-Did It?

The social media response from readers was intense with many, especially police officers, suggesting that crime figures are being manipulated locally to give the impression that crime is down.

Arrests and crimes solved are at historic lows. Cops say that there are few to no consequences for many arrests, especially for juveniles (juveniles have the highest categories for violent crime arrests-forthcoming article).

Even liberal social media site responders suggested that the President is cooking the books on crime statistics.

Putting Crime Statistics In Perspective 

The US Department of Justice offers two sources for crime statistics, the National Crime Victimization Survey (a survey of all crimes with some exceptions) and the FBI based on crimes reported to law enforcement. The National Crime Victimization Survey is necessary because the FBI collects a small percentage of crimes reported to law enforcement (32 percent for property crimes and 42 percent for violent crimes).

President Biden claims that crime statistics are down big time in 2022 and 2023 when we just recorded, per the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history, a 44 percent increase per criminologist  Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project. There was a huge increase in violence among groups.

For 2022, the FBI offered 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates, essentially flat. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year.

For 2023, It May Be Different

As of this writing, we have FBI data for the first three-quarters of 2023. The FBI offered new third-quarter (January through September 2023) crime statistics for cities, metro, and nonmetropolitan areas in 2023. Observations: Decreases are across the board for all crimes except for increases in Motor Vehicle Theft. Violent crime fell by 8.2 percent. Murder fell by 15.6 percent.

Note that many (most?) law enforcement agencies report their full-year data in the fourth quarter in December which means that the numbers above could be off considerably. So for the moment, there’s no definitive number for 2023.

Anything else?

Because the vast majority of what we call crime is not reported to law enforcement as recorded by the FBI, anything less than a ten percent increase or decrease needs to be used with considerable caution.

However, homicides are traditionally indicative of overall violent crime thus a 15.6 percent decrease in homicides, a crime that’s difficult to manipulate (although it happens) may indicate overall violent crime reductions.

Just note that according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, homicides increased by 50 percent from 2019-2022 and aggravated assaults increased by 36 percent. With increases this large, violent crime should decrease regardless of interventions.

Homicides are unquestionably serious yet a tiny percentage of overall violent crime.

The Media’s Take-State Of The Union Analysis

The Washington Post: President Biden, “Last year, the murder rate saw the sharpest decrease in history, and violent crime fell to one of the lowest levels in more than 50 years.”

This is correct. The official FBI numbers have not been released, but preliminary data led analysts to predict the decline in murders in 2023 is expected to be the sharpest drop on record. Murders had spiked during the pandemic, as Biden noted, and he attributed the drop to investments in public safety made by his administration. But it’s too early to make a definite link.

CNN: Biden claims that violent crime has fallen to lowest levels in ‘more than 50 years’

Biden claimed during his State of the Union address Thursday night that violent crime has fallen to one of its lowest levels in “more than 50 years.”

Facts First: This is true, at least based on preliminary 2023 data that should be treated with caution. The preliminary 2023 data published by the FBI, running through the third quarter of the year, showed that violent crime was down 8.2% compared to the same period in 2022…”

The President also claimed a decrease in violent crime in 2022 but ignored his Department of Justice’s assessment that violence rose 44 percent.

I contacted all the reporters involved offering the data above and asking why the National Crime Victimization Survey figures were ignored while explaining the complexities of reported crime data. No response.

Declining Crime Is Like Declining Inflation–People Don’t “Feel” The Impact 

Like the elusive nature of inflation, where the average person feels the pinch in their wallets without fully grasping its complexities, perceptions of crime rates often transcend statistical realities, shaped more by personal experiences and media portrayals than by empirical evidence.

Crime data is complex. First, the overwhelming percentage of violent and property crimes are not reported to law enforcement. Second, 11,806 law enforcement agencies out of 19,000 participated to some degree in 2023 data. Third, dozens of issues negatively impact crime reporting.

But let’s say the FBI is correct for emerging 2023 data. If crime is down significantly, why is fear of crime at record levels per Gallup?

Conversely, if inflation is down considerably, why are so many Americans angry about the economy?

Isn’t it interesting that the economy and crime (especially when you combine terrorism, illegal drugs, and crime into one category) are top issues for Americans per Pew?

In both instances, Americans do not see proof that the statistics reflect what they experience daily. Their grocery bill isn’t coming down. Their ability to buy a house or car is compromised. Their standard of living is considerably compromised because inflation is cumulative over the years. You can tell them all you want that inflation is approaching three percent but in people’s daily existence, there’s little to no evidence that it’s making life better.

It’s the same with crime. The President can tell people that crime is coming down considerably even when the best available evidence from the USDOJ says it’s not (2022) and the data is incomplete (but promising) for 2023. And there are still cities where violent crime is increasing and even more where categories of crime are increasing per the third quarter report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.

Authors are belittling Americans for their belief, per Gallup, that fear of crime is at an all-time high. Others state that we have never lived in safer times. More will state that crime is now lower than before COVID which I’m sure is “comforting” to tens of millions of crime victims.

I could fill twenty pages of very recent crime articles that indicate that violent crime remains a problem. Are we really putting National Guard soldiers in the New York City Subway system armed with automatic weapons?  New York officials will tell you that subway crime is down. Even if true, I’m guessing that the average New Yorker remains concerned about their safety.

Is There A Solution?

First, we have to understand that crime statistics, while necessary, tell an incomplete story about the impact of crime. It’s wonderful news that FBI statistics on “reported” (not all) crime is down at the moment (third quarter) for 2023 while understanding that the bulk of crime data has yet to be reported to the FBI.

Second, we have to have a quality index as to how Americans feel about crime and violence. Depending on the percentage decrease, declining local violence will be meaningless as to livability and economic impact. The perception of citizens needs to be embraced, not belittled. Nothing will change for cities unless people feel they are safe enough to embrace. There are millions of people living close to cities who refuse to visit or economically support. 

Third, we have to have a trusted source for crime statistics and research as to the best possible criminal justice interventions.

There is a solution if we are willing to come together and have factual and honest conversations about crime and justice system operations. The media needs to hold politicians’ feet to the fire as to their remarks. The public needs to confront the media over their use of crime data. So the 44 percent increase in violent crime via the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey for 2022 is ignored by the media? Why?

There is a need for a regional and national conversation about crime and justice system operations and it can’t be a one-time special from a network or cable channel. It has to be a weekly or monthly exercise examining every aspect of crime data and justice system operations.

There is good data. There is good evidence. We should be able to refute what’s obviously incorrect.

I’m suggesting that a national foundation (if there are any nonpartisan foundations left) or the Associated Press create a weekly or monthly topic via a website with the testimony of progressive and conservative experts and offer narratives and video coverage of data from the US Department of Justice or Gallup or Pew or the Centers For Disease Control or organizations producing data from city crime dashboards. The discussion would cover crime statistics or research on program effectiveness.

It needs to be presented in plain language that all can understand.

Let the American public vote on the results on a regional or national basis; let them tell us if crime is up or down. Let them tell us what solutions we should employ. Not doing this means we mistrust the collective wisdom of our fellow citizens. 

There IS objective data on crime and good research on the effectiveness of some (not all) programs but God knows we need more. The next President needs to increase the research budgets of federal agencies tenfold.

Crime is crippling to communities, the welfare of children and economies.  It can destroy cities. It destroys lives. It carries the very life-changing essence of cancer and other diseases.

It can only be addressed if we choose to look impartially and relentlessly at crime. That plus the recognition that the majority of the electorate are independents who want objectivity and civil discourse rather than partisan views.

We owe the nation rational nonpartisan, layperson-friendly evidence as to crime statistics and what works, and what we can do better. At the moment, that’s not happening.