We have immense contrasts in record increases and decreases in crime in two years from the US Department of Justice. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to accurately analyze crime in the US.
There are record increases and decreases in crime and violence in two years from the US Department of Justice.
The FBI released preliminary crime statistics for the first quarter of 2024 and reported crime (the vast majority of crime is not reported) plummeted.
All categories of crime decreased considerably for the first quarter of 2024.
The latest FBI statistics point to a “historic” drop in crime in the first quarter of this year, Attorney General Merrick Garland says.
And this, after a year in which the murder rate fell at one the fastest rates ever recorded, a top criminologist added.
“This should be good news for everybody,” criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers, told NBC News. “But it’s also early June and the trend of the nation’s crime rate is always uncertain.”
The rate of violent and property crimes dropped precipitously in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to quarterly statistics released Monday by the FBI known as the Uniform Crime Report.
The murder rate fell by 26.4%, reported rapes decreased by 25.7%, robberies fell by 17.8%, aggravated assault fell by 12.5%, and the overall violent crime rate went down by 15.2%, the statistics show.
Reported property crimes also decreased by 15.1%, according to the UCR report, which the FBI compiles using crime statistics supplied to the agency by law enforcement agencies across the U.S.
Context
Fear or concern about crime is at record levels per Gallup.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice using the National Crime Victimization Survey recorded a historic 44 percent increase in violent crime with huge gains in crime for groups in the fall of 2023 for calendar year 2022.
Per the FBI, “this report is based on data received from 13,719 of 19,268 law enforcement agencies in the country.” Until we know who’s not reporting, the data is suspect. Major law enforcement agencies are still not participating in the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System.
The new National Incident-Based Reporting System records multiple crimes instead of one primary crime under the previous system. Those in the field suggest that the NIBRS is causing reluctance to record reported crimes.
FBI statistics use crimes reported to law enforcement and the vast majority are not reported. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 42 percent of violent crimes are reported. It’s 32 percent for property crimes. As an example, approximately 80 percent of what we call crime are property events. Thirty-two percent of property crimes being reported out of 80 percent gives you some indication as to the difficulty of using FBI data.
Law enforcement agencies often report the bulk of their crime events in December in one data dump for the year which means that first-quarter crime events are highly suspect.
Preliminary full-year crime data from the FBI in 2023 recorded a decrease of 3 percent decrease in violence for metropolitan areas (where most Americans live) so the data above is astounding.
Vehicle theft has continuously increased by record amounts in recent years. So it’s suddenly down by 17 percent? That approaches the impossible.
Based on prior articles on crime, police readers will insist that they are not recording crimes or making arrests due to pressure from political leaders or that it’s seen as a waste of time if offenders (especially juveniles) are not being charged. Juvenile victimization hit record heights per the Bureau of Justice Statistics in a recent report using 2022 data.
All data cited above is available in Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S. on this website.
25 Examples Of Increasing Crime for recent years is available on this website.
Conclusions
So we have immense contrasts in record increases and decreases in crime in two years. This has happened before in Gallup’s overview of crime statistics based on their polling methods.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is considered a far more accurate compilation of crime because the great majority of crime is not reported. Thus, the latest “official” full-year report from the US Department of Justice recorded record increases in violent crime. Everything from the FBI for 2023 and 2024 is preliminary.
As an example, the FBI records approximately 11,000 hate crimes per their last official report. The National Crime Victimization Survey records approximately 250,000 hate crimes a year. What report would you use to analyze hate crimes?
However, the FBI data for the first quarter of 2024, while preliminary, indicates record decreases in violent and property crimes. Whether or not this holds for upcoming quarters remains to be seen.
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