There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US.
Searches for “stolen package” spike every December, according to Google Trends.
The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI.
The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion. Podcasts of this article are available.
Author’s Note: This article offers abbreviated data. Please refer to the full report from SafeWise for a complete analysis.
The SafeWise methodology is at the bottom of this article.
Article
Podcasts of this article are available on Spotify and YouTube.
Searches for “stolen package” spike every December, according to Google Trends.
There isn’t a lot of quantitative research on porch package theft which is why the data below is useful.
The theft of packages from your porch is a national problem. Data by SafeWise documents the extent of porch package theft, the areas most affected, and what citizens are doing to combat porch pirates.
There are 120 million porch package thefts in 2024, far more than all categories of property crime recorded by the FBI in 2023.
Twenty-three percent of porch package thefts are reported to law enforcement.
They estimate there are 260,000 incidents of package theft every day. Considering that around 25% of survey respondents had multiple packages stolen at once, the number of stolen packages could easily be more than 325,000 per day.
The financial toll of these thefts: $16 billion in losses.
This trend reflects the ongoing vulnerability of deliveries, as more than one in three people have encountered package theft at some point.
The Report Also Includes:
Top 10 worst metros for package theft 2023 (New York City leads in numbers–mostly eastern and midwest cities metro areas hit hardest–Cleveland leads as to rates)
What people are doing to deter package thefts (mostly installing video)
Who’s responsible for package thefts (you are–but in their survey, 45% of victims received replacements from the seller).
What homes are most vulnerable:
Homes with porches less than 25 feet from the street provide easy access for thieves
Packages visible from the road act as “open invitations” to would-be thieves
Surprisingly, cul-de-sacs are just as vulnerable to package theft as other types of streets.
How to prevent package thefts (see article for additional explanations):
Opt into delivery alerts
Require signatures.
Make alternative arrangements
Use technology
Work with your neighbors.
Eleven states have laws on the books that aim to deter porch pirates.
How This Data Impacts Property Crime Statistics And Fear Of Crime
120 million yearly porch package thefts impact our understanding of property crime and possibly our fear of crime. It changes our understanding of property crime statistics, especially those offered by the FBI based on crimes reported to law enforcement.
There is an endless debate as to whether crime is going up or down and how incidents affect fear of crime. Porch package theft is not included in official FBI crime statistics as a unique category except for the 23 percent of incidents reported to law enforcement under the larceny-theft category.
For those of us in the justice system who have direct contact with victims, we know that theft can have significant monetary and psychological consequences
Per the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023, Households in the United States experienced 13.6 million property victimizations in 2023. The number of property victimizations was comparable to the number in 2022 but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019.
For 2023, the FBI suggests declines in all forms of property crimes (8.5 million) except for vehicle theft. If the methodology for this report proves valid, that cannot be correct.
Per Gallup, fear of crime is at record highs.
There are huge increases in security devices purchased per industry documents.
As stated, the vast majority of what we call crime is not reported to law enforcement and the FBI for their national statistics. SafeWise suggests that only 23 percent of package thefts are reported to the police which is less than the 30 percent of all property crimes reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice.
When one includes data from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey, identity thefts, Gallup data, retail thefts, and other sources, it’s clear that many (most?) Americans are victimized yearly. Approximately 80 percent of what we call crime are property events.
We are addressing well over 40 million criminal victimizations yearly. Victimization may exceed half the population when you combine violent and property crime with identity theft and cybercrime.
Now we need to consider adding 120 million porch package thefts to crime totals.
Conclusions
There are multiple articles suggesting that American fear of crime (at record levels per Gallup) is inaccurate if not downright silly. The vast majority of crimes are property events.
Throughout my time as a police officer and the senior specialist for crime prevention for the USDOJ’s clearinghouse and the National Crime Prevention Council, I’ve encountered a wide array of citizens harshly impacted by both violent and property crime. I’ve seen people move (at great expense) when their garage was broken into to steal bikes. People are spending millions of dollars on security devices. Crime was a top priority for voters in the past election.
Property crime plays a major role in our understanding of criminality and fear of crime. The data on package thefts adds to our understanding of victimization in the US.
SafeWise Methodology
There seems to be some questionable methodology used by a variety of private sources when addressing crime statistics. Most use crime data from the FBI (most crime is not reported to law enforcement) to promote monetary goals. SafeWise sells home security equipment.
However, SafeWise seems to have put significant effort into its methodology far beyond what most private sources do. Their report is based on estimates but readers need to understand that all crime data are based on estimates whether they come from the FBI, the National Crime Victimization Survey, or Gallup.
Their report is based on a combination of FBI crime statistics, an independent safety survey, and their proprietary survey data. They collected responses from at least 150 people per state—totaling 7,500 participants nationwide—to get a representative view of package theft across the U.S. Two-thirds of survey respondents provided insights on various types of crime they had experienced, while the remaining third were all victims of package theft.
The 2024 SafeWise Package Theft Survey used a 16-question online survey fielded in August 2024 using Pollfish. They collected responses from 2,500 respondents across the U.S. who’ve had a package stolen at some point in their lifetime. The survey asked participants about their first-hand experiences with package theft.
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