"Decreasing violence"? DOJ report shows largest spike EVER in violent crime

In the midst of claims about decreasing violence rates, a crucial report from the US Department of Justice (DOJ) reveals a startling 44 percent increase in violent crime, marking the largest spike ever recorded.

Despite this significant revelation, major publications seem to be turning a blind eye to the data provided by the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). This article aims to shed light on the overlooked surge in crime and the importance of considering comprehensive crime data.

Opinion

Rates of violent crime increased 44 percent per the US Department of Justice’s latest and recent crime report.

Yawn.

Women, minorities, the young, the elderly, the poor, and many others experienced huge increases in violence.

Yawn.

What Is The National Crime Victimization Survey?

Some (most?) writing about crime routinely ignore the results of the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice. I doubt there is a mainstream journalist in the country who knows what it is and why it’s important; the number of experienced crime reporters has plummeted.

Journalists (and everyone else) are more than willing to quote the much smaller number of crimes reported to law enforcement through the FBI but when it comes to a national survey focused on total crime numbers,

crickets.

The Need For A National Survey-The Great Majority Of Crimes Are Not Reported

The National Crime Victimization Survey was promoted 50 years ago as NECESSARY for understanding crime in America because the vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement.

The latest 2022 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that 42 percent of violent crime is reported and 32 percent of property crimes are reported. So what the FBI (or big city crime dashboards) offer is a small portion of crime in the US.

Approximately 75-80 percent of what we call crime is property-related. If 32 percent of property crimes are reported, then that means that the overwhelming majority of crimes in the US are not brought to the attention of law enforcement.

Only 7 percent of identity thefts were reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Are we to make policy based on the reported 7 percent or the 93 percent that happened and were not reported?

The National Crime Victimization Survey was demanded by those concerned with understanding the totality of crime in America. The national media criticized a system where only a small percentage of crime was analyzed. Criminologists and politicians insisted on accurate counts.

Now, it’s ignored.

Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement Have Big Issues With Reliability and Accuracy

Beyond being a small subset of total crime, there are other issues to consider with reported crimes:

There is a long history of manipulating data (including homicides) downward at the local level for endless reasons. In Washington, D.C., there are disputes over what counts as a homicide.

There is well-documented mistrust among some minority communities and law enforcement leading to a reluctance to report crimes.

The majority of violent crimes involve someone the victim knows (including family members) making crime reporting difficult. Many of these events are seen by the victim as a private matter.

The wait times for police officers to arrive at a crime scene can be considerable, well over an hour is common. We have lost thousands of police officers due to resignation and retirement. If there’s no report because people were tired of waiting for officers to arrive, there’s no crime counted.

Major law enforcement organizations are still having issues transitioning to the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (although the percentage has greatly improved). Some suggest that it’s having an impact on crime reporting.

There are over 18,000 police agencies in the US. Getting all to define and report crime accurately is a daunting task. For example, there are thousands of law enforcement agencies stating that there were no hate crimes in their jurisdiction for the latest reporting period.

Some states and cities promote “crime-free” housing meaning that occupants could lose their homes if a crime (i.e., domestic violence) is reported.

Note that arrests have plummeted over the last two decades and arrests declined sharply since the beginning of the police use of force protests (2014) and COVID-19 (2020) thus there is evidence that events affect numbers. If there’s no arrest, was the crime counted in official statistics?  

The National Crime Victimization Survey Is Ignored 

When Criminal Victimization-2022 was released in September 2023 by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (based on the National Crime Victimization Survey) it provided huge increases in violent crime for groups compared with 2021 figures. It was ignored by the national media. Via search, I count less than a handful of articles for a national report issued months ago.

But when the FBI released their latest data for 2022 in September of 2023 based on crimes reported to law enforcement, just about every media source in the country provided the results without questioning what they meant.

The Largest Increase in Violent Crime In The Nation’s History-Big Increase In Violence For The Elderly, The Poor, The Young, Women, And Minorities

The Bureau of Justice Statistics never provided a percentage increase for violent crime via the latest “Criminal Victimization” as they routinely have in past years.

There are huge increases in violent crime rates in 2022 compared to 2021 (44 percent per Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project) and large increases in violence for groups.

A 44 percent increase in violence would be the largest ever recorded. Yet, according to the limited numbers offered by the FBI, violence decreased slightly in 2022. With vast underreporting, the numbers for violence “could” be up, not down.

Let’s go back to the Bureau Of Justice Statistics report itself and look at the vast increases in groups. There are two categories, overall rates of violence and rates of what the Bureau of Justice Statistics calls “serious violent crime” (excluding simple assaults).

Results:

Huge increases in overall rates of violence and serious violence.

There are huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes against females.

Huge increases in violence and serious violence for crimes for African Americans and Whites.

Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for Hispanics.

Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 12-17.

Rates doubled for serious violent crimes for those aged 50 and above.

Rates skyrocketed for serious violent crimes for those in the poorest category.



 

So regardless of where your interest lies, whether it’s the elderly, the poor, the young, the old, women, or minorities (especially Hispanics) rates of violent crime went up like a rocket at Cape Canaveral.

If You Write About Crime Increasing-People Lose Their Minds

Crime has become a political issue that simply does not allow for an honest discussion. Violence and fear of crime drive elections. Some organizations insist that we have never lived in safer times while Gallup is stating that fear of crime is at record levels.

You can use Gallup data to suggest the possibility that most Americans are victimized by crime yearly (based on violent and property crimes, identity theft, and cybercrime) while understanding that repeat victimizations may skew results.

Yet you will be attacked for posting government crime statistics because they don’t support biased views. To many, increasing crime means a movement toward more cops and incarceration, something they oppose.

It took national crime publications weeks to mention the National Crime Victimization’s vast increase in crime (most never mentioned it at all) because it doesn’t fit their narrative.

Hopeful Projections And Big City Crime Dashboards

There are two groups and one respected analyst stating that there will be large decreases in violent crime in 2023 based on big-city police crime dashboards.

It’s good news and I trust their analysis as long as one understands that it’s based on a small percentage of crime.

It’s also important to recognize that there are dozens of cities reporting increases in major categories of violent crime with 21 reporting increases in homicides, some with considerable gains.

I’m hopeful they are correct while understanding that large city crime reports may (or may not) be a good predictor of a state’s total crime numbers. For example, Baltimore has very high rates of crime and violence and they seem to be declining for 2023 police reports. But Maryland can be seen as one large city (with some rural counties with small crime numbers) thus crime reductions for the state may increase regardless of Baltimore’s contribution.

But I keep asking; will the average citizen of Baltimore (or any other city) be able to touch, smell, feel, and taste a “safer” environment because rates of violence declined? Will tourists or jobs return to the city?

For Brunetta Phair, whose older brother was shot and killed last spring, the city’s recent progress has brought her family little comfort. “It’s still not enough,” she said. “I understand the numbers are going down, but it’s just not enough.”

New York City is boasting about big declines in 2023. Crime is up 31% overall since 2019, with big jumps in felony assaults (almost 35%), shootings (27%) and robberies (26%). Yes, crime fell in 2023 over 2022 in five of the seven major crime categories, including a 12% drop in homicides and 25% in shootings. But that’s still a 21% rise in murders over 2019.

An Explanation For Reported Big City Crime Decreases

Per one measure of big city crime dashboards from The Major Cities Chiefs Association (includes US and Canadian cities), from 2019-2022, homicides increased by 50 percent and aggravated assaults went up by by 36 percent.

Crime increased in all Canadian cities midyear whereas it decreased in most American cities and that doesn’t make sense (are police-community relations better in Canada allowing for more crime reporting?).

Are the projected declines in big city crime what methodologists call a regression to the mean (average) or an acknowledgment that big spikes (or decreases) in crime are not forever? Crime goes up and down for reasons we can’t fully identify. It’s been that way since the beginning of crime statistics.

There are cities throughout the country celebrating their initiatives that they believe are lowering crime but it may be nothing more than declining crime rates nationally, as they have done multiple times before.

With a 50 percent increase in homicides, increases can’t continue rising regardless of what cities claim as interventions.

Conclusions

Violent crimes have a similar impact as cancer or any condition that causes people immense personal distress. Those of us within mainstream justice agencies have enormous amounts of interactions with crime victims and we’ve seen firsthand the incredible damage done. I’m not sure that applies to others without that experience.

Is ignoring the damage done due to big increases in violence towards African Americans and Hispanics racist? Can the same be asked about ignoring the growth of violence against women? Is it sexist?

As I write this, ABC News offered a series calling violence a crisis. In 2022, there were 45,222 gun deaths in the United States, which per capita, is significantly higher than in other industrialized countries. Successive US governments have allowed gun violence to become a human rights crisis. This is from Amnesty International.

So is ABC News or Amnesty International disingenuous by calling US violence a crisis?

There’s nothing wrong with reported crime data from the FBI. There’s nothing wrong with using big-city crime dashboard numbers. It is what it is. We have to play the hand dealt, warts and all. It’s that way for a variety of crime research.

It’s the same for the National Crime Victimization Survey. There’s no perfect system for counting crime.  The Bureau of Justice Statistics will state that they simply collect crime data differently. They are neither right nor wrong, just different.

But if we disregard well-done crime survey data, we ignore the plight of fellow citizens (women, minorities, the poor, children, and the elderly) suffering from crime, we fail to be objective. We fail to care.