The FBI released six months of reported crime data for 2024. The reasons for treating the data cautiously are below.
This article covers three USDOJ reports, FBI data for 2023, FBI numbers for the first six months of 2024, and the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2023.
As to crime in America, who do we believe, the FBI with its 3 to 10 percent decrease in violent crime, or the National Crime Victimization Survey with the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history?
It would be nice if national crime statistics were not massively confusing. This article focuses on the first six months of reported crime data for 2024 via a report released by the FBI on September 30, 2024.
FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey data for all of 2023 were just released, see USDOJ: A Record Increase in Violence “Or” Violent Crime Declined 3 Percent.
The question is who to believe, crimes reported to law enforcement as reported by the FBI or the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) offered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Both are US Department of Justice agencies. The NCVS shows a massive 44 percent increase in violence while the FBI offers reductions.
Is Half-Year FBI Data Accurate?
A summary of FBI numbers based on crimes reported to law enforcement for the first six months of 2024 is below.
Law enforcement agencies often release data at the end of the calendar year. If one looks at FBI figures for the month most crime happens, it’s December. Is that accurate? No. It simply reflects the fact that some (many?) police agencies can (and do) wait till the end of the year to offer crime statistics. What you get now will change.
Law enforcement agencies also continue to struggle with the adoption of the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) although the percentage of participation is increasing substantially while noting that The FBI is allowing agencies to submit data from the old Summary Reporting System (SRS).
NIBRS collects data for 52 offenses, plus 10 additional offenses for which only arrests are reported. SRS counts limited data for 10 offenses and 20 additional crimes for which only arrests are reported.
Per the FBI, while NIBRS estimates provide a nationally representative view of crime across the country, the estimates themselves are subject to levels of uncertainty caused by incomplete NIBRS reporting. Per the Marshall Project, 8,356 agencies submitted all 12 months of crime data in 2022, 44% of all police agencies.
Thus six months of preliminary data for 2024 and the trend lines they project will change as we move throughout the rest of the year.
Jeff Asher, criminal justice analyst and co-founder of consulting firm AH Datalytics, previously told CNN, “We have other data sources that point to the same trends, but the degree of those declines is probably being overstated due to the methodology being employed by the FBI.”
Please treat this data cautiously.
First Six Months Of FBI Crimes Reported To Law Enforcement For 2024
On Monday, September 30, 2024, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program released reported crime data for January-June 2024 on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE) at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov.
The January-June 2024 data, provides a preliminary look at crime trends for January through June 2024 compared to January through June 2023.
A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least three or more common months of data for January through June 2023 and 2024 indicates:
Reported violent crime decreased by 10.3 percent
Murder decreased by 22.7 percent
Rape decreased by 17.7 percent
Robbery decreased by 13.6 percent
Aggravated assault decreased by 8.1 percent
Reported property crime decreased by 13.1 percent
Two Primary Yearly Crime Reports From The US Department of Justice For 2023
There are two primary reports from the US Department of Justice on crime. One is based on crimes reported to law enforcement and compiled by the FBI. The vast majority of crimes are not reported to the police and are not included in FBI reports.
The FBI offers a drop of 3 percent in violent crime for all of 2023.
Murders decreased by 11.6 percent which was expected considering that homicides rose approximately 30 percent nationwide and 50 percent in cities in recent years. Sustaining a 30-50 percent increase in murders would be almost impossible.
The other national report is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics which involves a yearly survey. The survey is over 50 years old and was created to include all criminal activity in the US except homicides (you can’t interview dead persons).
Per Bureau of Justice Statistics data, the nation’s largest increase in violent crime (2022) largely continued in 2023.
Unreported Crime Affects FBI Crime Figures
For 2022, approximately 40 percent of violent crime was reported to law enforcement per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
For property crime, it was approximately 30 percent.
Per USDOJ agencies, approximately 25 percent of juvenile crime was reported. For identity theft, roughly 7 percent of incidents were reported. About 12,000 hate crime incidents were reported to the FBI and approximately 250,000 yearly hate crime incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS.
For 2023, the National Crime Victimization Survey states that violent crime reporting rose to approximately 45 percent (from 41.5 percent in 2022) yet the FBI offers a 3 percent decrease.
Property crime reporting via the NCVS dropped slightly but it’s still approximately 30 percent; the FBI is offering decreases in all property crimes except for auto theft.
We choose to make policies and judgments about crime largely based on crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI. Mainstream media will widely cover their new report while NCVS data remains missing in most analyses.
FBI data represents reported crime, not total crime.
The criminological community has traditionally supported the National Crime Victimization Survey as a far more accurate overview of crime in the United States. Crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI involved 14 million criminal offenses compared to the 40 million plus figure via the NCVS (including identity theft).
National Crime Victimization Survey Releases 2023 Crime Statistics-Largest Increase in Violent Crime In The Nation’s History
The National Crime Victimization Survey in a 2023 report for the calendar year 2022 offered the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent) per analyst Jeff Asher, and The Marshall Project.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics did not provide the percentage increase (but they have provided percentage increases multiple times in the past).
Per the press release (September 12, 2024) from the US Department of Justice for the new 2023 report, “Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicate that in 2023, the rate of nonfatal violent victimization in the United States was 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, which was similar to the 2022 rate of 23.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.”
Per the September 12, 2024, USDOJ press release headline, “Violent victimization unchanged year over year…”
That means that the record 44 percent increase in US violence largely continues from 2022 to 2023.
It remains the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history.
Conclusions
Based on the totality of crimes in 2023 via the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, the nation’s largest increase in violent crime in 2022 largely continued in 2023.
For 2023, based on crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI, the 45 percent of violent crimes reported decreased by 3 percent.
For the first six months of 2024, based on crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI, the 45 percent of violent crimes reported decreased by 10 percent.
Yet the biggest issue to consider is that most of the decreases reported by the FBI are rather small for all of 2023. An estimated 3.0 percent decrease in violent crime? Aggravated assault figures decreased by an estimated 2.8 percent? Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3 percent? Overall property crime was down by 2.4 percent?
Based on the first six months of 2024, there were mostly double-digit reductions in crime.
All people want to know is whether violence is increasing. Based on the recently offered figures based on all crime in 2023, per the National Crime Victimization Survey, a measure of all crime except homicides, we have the largest increase in violence in the nation’s history.
Per the 45 percent of crimes reported to the police via the FBI in 2023, we have a violence decline of 3 percent.
There is simply too much uncertainty for the first six months of 2024 to draw firm conclusions but the decreases are substantial.
Comments