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Example: L.A. sees lowest homicide rate in decades — but why killings are down is up for debate. Theories about why killings were near historic lows last year include greater investment in community programs, a push by the LAPD to target repeat violent criminals, and fallout from the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, Los Angeles Times.
This article offers the latest data on crime statistics from the FBI, the National Crime Victimization Survey from the USDOJ's Bureau of Justice Statistics, and three independant analysts-organizations.
Possible reasons for the decline in urban crime, based on reported crimes (the majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement), are offered.
The majority of criminologists argue that we lack a definitive explanation for the current and past crime drops.
Does the average American believe that crime in cities or the country is dropping? Does the average American believe they are now safer?
CrimeinAmerica.Net-Chat GPT's "Top 10 Sources for Crime in America" based on primary statistical sources with trusted secondary analysis.
AuthorLeonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice's clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the "McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime" national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of "Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization," available at Amazon and additional bookstores.
Crime in America.Net-"Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear."
Quoted by The Associated Press, USA Today, A&E Television, the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Television Show (30 times), Department of Justice documents, multiple US Supreme Court briefs, C-SPAN, the National Institute of Health, college and university online libraries, multiple books and journal articles, The Baltimore Sun, The Capital Gazette, MSN, AOL, Yahoo, The Daily Beast, The Huffington Post, JAMA, News Break, The National Institute of Corrections, The Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention, The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Gartner Consulting, The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center, Law.Com, The Marshall Project, The Heritage Foundation via Congressional testimony, Law Enforcement Today, Law Officer.Com, Blue Magazine, Citizens Behind The Badge, Police 1, American Peace Officer, Corections.Com, Prison Legal News, The Hill (newspaper of Congress), the Journal of Offender Monitoring, Inside Edition Television, Yomiuri Shimbun (Asia's largest newspaper), LeFigaro (France's oldest newspaper), Oxygen and allied publications, Forbes, Newsweek, The Economist, The Toronto Sun, Homeland Security Digital Library, The ABA Journal, The Daily Express (UK) The Harvard Political Review, The Millennial Source, The Federalist Society, Lifewire, The Beccaria Portal On Crime (Europe), The European Journal of Criminology, American Focus and many additional publications.
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A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Article
You can make any case you want about crime in America based on US Department of Justice data. Crime statistics are the wild west of sociology. Official crime counts don't lie, but they don't tell the whole truth either.
There is good evidence that violent crime is at very high (historic?) levels, per the USDOJ's National Crime Victimization Survey.
Concurrently, independent analysts and organizations claim that reported urban violent crime is dropping like a rock. For the country, the FBI states that for 2023 and 2024 (the latest full reports), violent crime fell approximately 3 to 4.5 percent.
But is the real issue perceptions of citizen safety? Mexico's President, Claudia Sheinbaum, credited a new law enforcement strategy that focuses on intelligence gathering and improving coordination among agencies for a 40% drop in homicides.
Are we suggesting that Mexico, with its endless cartels, organized crime, and large number of homicides, is now safe for its citizens because homicides decreased? Does the same question apply to American cities?
There have been more than 300,000 homicides in Mexico during the last ten years, according to Google AI.
Per CBS, Mexico is considered one of the most dangerous countries for members of the press, with more than 150 journalists murdered since 1994, according to Reporters Without Borders.
Previous Crime Declines-The Reasons Were Unexplainable
Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey states that we were at record historical lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
From 1993 to 2021, the rate of violent victimization declined from 79.8 to 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
According to FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 48 percent between 1993 and 2016. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (National Crime Victimization Survey), the rate fell by 74 percent during that span.
Why bring this up? The conclusions or reasons offered for past declines are similar to today, with every politician and police chief in the country claiming success based on their favored strategies.
During this period, most claimed that law enforcement efforts caused the declines. A social problems approach or using violence interrupters wasn't included because, at that time, few believed that they would have an impact. Yes, violence interrupters (we called them street counselors-I was one) and the offer of programs to offenders existed during this period.
Yet most criminologists told the media that no one had a "provable" clue as to why crime declined by huge numbers. It was unexplainable then; does it remain unexplainable now?
Let's take a look at what independent analysts and organizations are saying now.
What's Happening Now?-Jeff Asher
From analyst Jeff Asher: The number of crimes reported to law enforcement agencies almost certainly fell at a historic clip in 2025 led by the largest one-year drop in murder ever recorded — the third straight year setting a new record — and sizable drops in reported violent and property crime. This assessment will not be confirmed until the FBI releases formal estimates for 2025 sometime in the second half of next year, but it is based on a variety of sources all saying the same thing.
The source for the assessment is the Real-Time Crime Index, a collection of monthly crime data from hundreds of agencies nationwide. The most recent RTCI sample consists of 570 law enforcement agencies with reporting through October 2025.
The drop in crime in 2025 continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025. A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024.
What's Happening Now-Major Cities Chief Association
Look at the chart from the Major Cities Chiefs Association documenting midyear crimes from January 1 to June 30, 2025, and 2024. The collective summation sheet shows reductions in all categories. Obversations:
Sixty-eight US cities are included, along with 9 Canadian cities. Out of the 77 cities included:
Less than half (33) had reductions in all violent crimes measured.
17 had increases in homicides
12 had increases in robberies
19 had increases in aggravated assaults
26 had increases in rapes.
What's Happening Now-Council On Criminal Justice
The Council On Criminal Justice Offers the following:
This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with data through June 2025. It examines monthly, half-year, and yearly rates of reported crime for 13 violent, property, and drug offenses in 42 American cities that have consistently reported monthly data over the past six years.
Reported levels of 11 of the 13 offenses covered in this report were lower in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024; domestic violence was the only offense that rose during this period, and drug offenses remained even.
Looking at changes in violent offenses from the first six months of 2024 and 2025, the rate of homicides in the 30 study cities providing data for that crime was 17% lower, representing 327 fewer homicides. There were 10% fewer reported aggravated assaults, 21% fewer gun assaults, 10% fewer sexual assaults, and 3% more domestic violence incidents. Robbery fell by 20%, while carjackings (a type of robbery) decreased by 24%.
What's Happening Now-The FBI
Note that the FBI currently offers an 8.8 percent decrease for violent crime and an 11.7 percent decrease for property crime from September 2024 to August, 2025. Please note that preliminary data from the FBI is routinely an overestimate.
But The USDOJ States That Most Crime Is Not Reported
Then there is the controversy as to which set of USDOJ crime statistics to trust or believe.
There are two USDOJ measures of crime in the United States. One is based on crimes reported to law enforcement, as articulated by the FBI and the organizations cited above, and that's what people are basing the urban or overall reduction in violent crime on. Yes, homicides are obviously the most reported and reliable crime statistic.
Beyond multiple cities accused of providing downgraded crime data (i.e., D.C., Memphis, Oakland, others), few dispute the drop in homicides or the overall violence reduction in cities based on crimes reported to the police.
The problem? It would take several additional pages of explanations as to the endless difficulties surrounding the use of reported crimes, so I'll stick with the most obvious: the vast majority of what we call crime is not reported to the police.
Seventy percent of what we call crime are property events and, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 30 percent of those are reported to the police. Close to half of violent crimes are reported.
Per the USDOJ's Bureau of Justice Statistics recent report, 38 percent of urban violent crimes are reported.
Based on unreported crimes, it's possible (but probably unlikely) for the 3-4 percent decrease (2023-2024) per the FBI in national violent crime to actually be an increase.
Only 13 percent of urban rapes and sexual assaults are reported to law enforcement. How can we make assumptions about crime if only 13 percent are reported in cities?
USDOJ Data On Rising Violence
However, according to the US Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (the premier method of counting crimes in America, as cited by the US Census), there was a significant increase in rates of violent crime in 2022 (44 percent, according to independent analysts). Rates have remained almost unchanged for 2023 and the most recent report for 2024. Violent victimization settled at a much higher level than expected, and stayed there.
The National Crime Victimization Survey states that urban violence increased in its latest 2024 report. Independant alalyists say that reported violent and property crimes are falling considerably in cities.
One source claims the increase in rates of violent crime is 80 percent, based on the National Crime Victimization Survey. That finding, however, includes a baseline of 2020 when the pandemic raged, and surveys and counts of crime were impacted.
So it's plausible, based on the totality of crime as measured by the National Crime Victimization Survey, that there have been historic increases in violent crime during recent years. The NCVS does not count homicides (you can't interview dead people), and it excludes business crimes, those under the age of 12, and other categories.
We should also note that per Gallup, the overwhelming majority of those polled indicate a fear or concern about crime, with half expressing serious concerns.
Possible Reasons For Those Claiming Success In Reducing Urban Crimes
Per the Major City Chiefs Association and endless media accounts, most American cities are claiming reductions in overall or specific crime types.
Did all of these cities come together and agree on a specific anti-crime strategy? No. Did the US Department of Justice propose a new method for crime reduction? Beyond President Trump's plea to let cops be cops, the answer is no.
Thus, when individual mayors take credit for the use of violence interrupters and social programs offered to offenders for crime reductions, how can that be a credible statement when violence is falling in hundreds of cities not using that strategy? A ChatGPT search indicates that a small number of cities use violence interrupters.
If we are going to be fair in our explanations to citizens, we have to base credibility on programs evaluated by independent researchers that have sufficient methodological integrity and replication (it worked elsewhere). There have been endless anti-crime programs in the past that looked wonderful with impressive results (i.e., Hawaii's Project HOPE). But when their methodologies were examined or when the same projects were replicated in other cities, they either failed to produce the same results or the results were inconsistent.
Some on the progressive side suggest that more arrests and more cops are not necessary for crime control. Those making that claim (arrests have plummeted by 25-50 percent–we lost 25,000 cops per the Bureau of Labor Statistics), the National Crime Victimization Survey refutes that assertion with data showing vast increases in rates of overall violence.
Proactive policing, one of the few modalities offering convincing evidence (based on a National Academy of Sciences report examining 1,000 evaluations) that it reduces crime, is based on sufficient numbers of officers making quality arrests. Proactive policing seems to be one of the most provable modalities for crime control.
There are mayors in Baltimore, Chicago, and other cities claiming large reductions in crime based on violence interrupters and the offer of social and employment programs to targeted offenders. Are they correct? Based on the criteria above (independent researchers using the best possible methodologies and replication in other cities), there is simply no substantial proof that the combination of violence interrupters and programs is having the desired effect.
I'm not suggesting that cities should not try the use of violence interrupters or social programs. I'm not suggesting that we should not offer programs to offenders in the justice system. I'm simply saying that, for the moment, proof of concept as to recidivism is minimal.
The same applies to the strategies articulated by some chiefs of police. One claimed that he greatly reduced crime by having officers go to hot spots and turn on their emergency lights for an entire shift.
Police chiefs are stating that they have improved relations with communities, and it's paying off.
Some claim that President Trump's insistence that cities need to be far more proactive and aggressive via law enforcement is working. Early results in cities using National Guard troops and enhanced federal law enforcement are positive, but others tell us that it's too early to make a firm, conclusive determination.
Other explanations for reduced crime range from the dramatic reduction in the use of alcohol to 812,000 drug overdose deaths in ten years (per ChatGPT) with many involving repeat offenders, to taking lead out of gasoline, to immigration enforcement, to a growing population of older people (younger persons are highly correlated with crime), to the fact that Americans own 300-400 million firearms.
What Is the Best Explanation For The Reduction of Reported Crimes?
Per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, we had a 50 percent increase in homicides and a 36 percent increase in aggravated assaults in their cities measured from 2019-2022.
Cities can't sustain that level of violence. A regression to the mean (or average) likely happened because of the high point of crime in the early 2020's after the pandemic. Crime is simply returning to normal patterns regardless of interventions.
Conclusions
Everyone likes to insist that their favored anti-crime strategies reduced crime. Some mayors and others KNOW in their gut that we do not need the heavy hand of law enforcement and that a softer approach is both humane and effective. Interestingly, most Americans agree, according to Gallup. Two-thirds prefer focusing more on social problems than on law enforcement.
But we should also note that per Gallup, the overwhelming majority of those polled indicate a fear or concern about crime, with half expressing serious concerns.
As stated, the best available program evidence, based on over 1,000 evaluations with suitable methodologies indicates that proactive policing provides us with the best chance for reducing crime. Yes, that usually means cooperation with communities.
But crime goes up and down for reasons we can't fully explain. Criminologists simply do not know why. One states that many will offer explanations, but they really do not know (or they are lying).
Then there are categories of property crimes (cyber crimes, porch pirating, cargo theft, retail theft) that, per FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics data plus private evaluations, are exploding. But every report in this article states that property crime is declining.
Then there is a vast increase in violent crime via the USDOJ's National Crime Victimization Survey. If the US Census Bureau calls this the best method of counting crime in the country, maybe we should be listening? Is this why there is a proposal for combining reported crimes with the National Crime Victimization Survey?
Again, I'm not suggesting we do not try everything and anything to reduce crime, and maybe violence reducers and social programs really do work "if" properly evaluated and replicated.
But for the moment, we really don't know with certainty why crime increases or decreases.
For the moment, we do not have firm proof that violent and property crime is really decreasing, per the National Crime Victimization Survey.
For the moment, fear of crime per Gallup is at a near record high.
As stated, crime statistics are the wild west of sociology. You can use good data to make any claim you want.
However, we do have a golden opportunity to study the probable reasons why reported crime is declining not only in America, but in Canada, London, and Mexico. I suspect that it's also happening in other countries.
Appendix-Data On Offender Program Effectiveness
A paper by University of Virginia law Prof. Megan Stevenson surveys more than 50 years of "randomized controlled trials" (RCTs) in criminal justice research and argues that almost no interventions have lasting benefit, and the ones that do don't replicate in other settings."
"RCT, a form of experiment used to control factors not under the direct control of researchers, is often called the gold standard of research methods."
"Writing in the Boston University Law Review, Stevenson says that the relatively few RCT studies of anticrime efforts that survive the academic review process "are biased toward showing that the intervention evaluated was more successful than it actually was."
There is a meta-analysis from Vanderbilt University based on 600 evaluations funded by the USDOJ stating that programs for offenders either fail or, when there were reductions, they were minimal.
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