Immigrants and Crime: What the Numbers Say – And What They Don’t

This article was originally published here.

Highlights

This article is available as a YouTube podcast.

There are distinctions between legal and illegal immigration and crime. Separating the two is necessary for understanding a crime connection.

Illegal immigration, however, lacks the checks and balances designed to keep out the violent and those willing to hurt Americans. The total number of unauthorized border crossings since 2021 exceeds 12 million. Some estimates, including statements from House Speaker Mike Johnson, suggest the number could be closer to 16 million.

Per data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “noncitizens prosecuted in U.S. district courts are less likely to have a known criminal history than U.S. citizens. Approximately 44% of noncitizens and 60% of U.S. citizens had a known criminal history. 

Forty-four percent of prosecuted immigrants with criminal histories suggest the possibility that millions of illegal immigrants with criminal backgrounds may have entered the United States. 

More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress.

Per CNN, 56 percent of those polled state that the country should deport illegal immigrants, a huge increase. Sixty-one percent of independents agree.

A summary of the immigration and crime data is below and in the Appendix.

Quote

“Most of the 238 men rounded up by federal immigration agents and deported to a Salvadoran prison do not have criminal records in the U.S. “or elsewhere in the region…..” The Marshall Project daily newsletter.

Analysis: Per the US Department of Justice, the overwhelming majority of what we call crime is not reported to law enforcement, most crimes are not solved, and prosecutors dismiss a high number of cases; thus, data indicating that illegal immigrants don’t show up in official records through arrests and incarcerations offers little proof that they are law-abiding.

Central and South American countries with very high rates of crime are not well known for keeping accurate records, thus, the lack of a criminal history for illegal immigrants could be meaningless.

Article

There are hundreds of answers I can provide as to crime in America. I can give you rates, who is victimized, where the victimized live, how much they make, what happens if you resist, how many victims know their attacker, and many other topics.

However, I cannot definitively answer your questions about immigrants and crime because of a lack of good or recent research. All the studies below depend on a count of arrests or incarcerations. When considering that the overwhelming majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement, anyone (native-born or immigrant) could easily be engaged in criminal activity and not show up in official records.  

US Department of Justice data does not include immigration status except for federal prisons, and a reference (below) showing that crime reporting in immigrant communities is low and criminal history records from other countries are unreliable.

I conducted a literature review through Google and Chat GPT, and the majority of articles and literature will tell you that the immigrant and crime problem is exaggerated. But the data coming to that conclusion is often old or the methodology is inadequate. 

Regardless, data on immigration and crime is below. 

Brief Summation Of The Data

There are two groups of immigrants, legal and illegal. Separating the two is necessary for understanding a crime connection.

Legal immigrants seem to commit fewer crimes, but offending acts are parallel with native-born Americans. “There is, however, evidence that crime rates for the second and third generation rise to more closely match the general population of native-born Americans. If this trend is confirmed, it may be an unwelcome aspect of integration, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2015. 

For illegal immigrants, based on limited data, their crime connection seems to be low, but the research is insufficient based on dubious methodology (i.e., counting arrests and incarcerations). The overwhelming majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. Crimes solved have greatly declined, thus, incarcerations are rare.

There are organizations and media outlets definitively stating that immigrants do not commit crimes in great numbers. That’s a challenging statement to make because of the age of data and iffy (methodologically incorrect) research.

Some people declare that immigrants (and immigrant gangs) are creating huge crime problems, and where that’s possible, again, we lack good data from the research community.

There needs to be new research by independent organizations using accepted methodology to establish a recent relationship. To get firm conclusions, surveys of the immigrant population need to be conducted, which will be difficult but possible if anonymous and coordinated through organizations immigrants trust.

As someone who has studied (and taught) criminology, I’m aware of the crime problems associated with immigrants in the past. Note that it’s harsh discrimination that often creates a “circling of the wagons” within immigrant communities, which creates the desire to embrace organized criminal elements. When possible, that should be avoided.

Recent Data on Immigration and Crime (I will add my observations as appropriate)

NBC News (2024): More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide (emphasis added) — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week. A 2016 DHS Inspector General’s report found 368,000 criminal immigrants were not detained by ICE. According to ICE’s fiscal year 2023 budget justification, there were 405,786 convicted criminal immigrants on the non-detained docket as of June 5, 2021, NBC.

Associated Press (2024): ICE said 662,556 people under its supervision were either convicted of crimes or face criminal charges. Nearly 15,000 were in its custody, but the vast majority — 647,572 — were not, AP.

Northwestern University Study (2024): Analyzing 150 years of U.S. Census data, this study found that immigrants are consistently less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born individuals. Notably, since 1960, immigrants have been 60% less likely to be incarcerated compared to native-born Americans, NU.       ​

My Observation: Incarceration is an imprecise method of judging crime. The overwhelming majority of crimes are not reported, especially in immigrant communities. The great majority of all crimes are not solved by law enforcement. A large percentage (20-30 percent) of crimes are not prosecuted.  

American Immigration Council Analysis (2024): This analysis indicated that between 1980 and 2022, as the immigrant share of the U.S. population more than doubled from 6.2% to 13.9%, the total crime rate dropped by 60.4%. Specifically, violent crime decreased by 34.5%, and property crime fell by 63.3%, ​Immigration Impact.

My Observation: Again, the great majority of crimes are not reported. The Council is an advocacy organization. FBI data is notoriously unreliable. Per the National Crime Victimization Survey’s last official report, violence in America increased by 44 percent. Per the FBI’s last official report, violent crime decreased by three percent.

University of Wisconsin–Madison Study (2020): This study found that counties with larger undocumented immigrant populations tend to have lower crime rates. UW.

Some Data Is Old And Precedes The Massive Immigration Of Recent Years

A principal organization studying immigration and crime (Cato) bases its research on arrests and convictions, indicating that there is no direct connection between immigration and crime.

My Observation: As stated, the vast majority of crimes are not reported to the police. Crimes solved have plummeted to record lows. It’s not unusual for any prosecutor in the United States to dismiss large numbers (20-30 percent) of criminal cases, especially if the matter can be resolved through alternative means like deportation. In New York, an alarming 94 percent of domestic-violence cases are being dismissed. There is data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicating that 50 percent of select federal crimes are dismissed.

Their report is from 2019, well before the massive immigration of later years. For these reasons, the data is instructive but fundamentally flawed.

The lack of crime reporting, unsolved crimes, and prosecutor discretion leaves millions of crimes unaccounted for via arrests and convictions, especially when you consider that the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ suggests that immigrants are less likely to report their victimizations to law enforcement.

An older report than above on the Criminalization of Immigration in the United States by The American Immigration Council is based on FBI data stating that:

Between 1990 and 2013, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population grew from 7.9 percent to 13.1 percent and the number of unauthorized immigrants more than tripled from 3.5 million to 11.2 million.

During the same period, FBI data indicate that the violent crime rate declined 48 percent—which included falling rates of aggravated assault, robbery, rape, and murder. Likewise, the property crime rate fell 41 percent, including declining rates of motor vehicle theft, larceny/robbery, and burglary. 

My Observation: Depending on vastly underreported FBI data and a small percentage of solved crimes proving that crime by immigrants is low seems dubious from a quality research point of view.

There’s No Doubt

Based on the NBC and Associated Press reports, there’s no doubt that significant numbers of people with criminal histories have illegally crossed the border. We simply do not know how many.

The total number of unauthorized border crossings since 2021 exceeds 12 million. Some estimates, including statements from House Speaker Mike Johnson, suggest the number could be closer to 16 million.

It’s unlikely for illegal immigrants not to contain people with criminal records and ties to organized gangs, regardless of official records.

Most illegal immigrants come from Central and South America, and these places have some of the highest rates of violence and crime in the world. Some come to escape. Some come to victimize.

Past Immigration Is Instructive

Criminology and sociology discuss past immigration in terms of criminality and gang behavior. Every immigrant group in America had its share of good, decent people looking to create a new law-abiding life.

Concurrently, every immigrant group had its share of people involved in criminal enterprises. Immigrants in the past faced discrimination, and “organizations” (including criminal organizations) were a solution.

As a child, my uncle told me about the immense abuse suffered by Irish Catholics, where terms like, “Dogs and the Irish not welcome” were hung in storefronts. Like every other immigrant group, the Irish started their own stores, banks, and associations because of open (and accepted) oppression. Organized crime and gangs followed. Like all organized crime, protection was offered for a price, and politicians were bribed. Needed (stolen) goods were acquired and offered at reasonable prices, appreciated by the community. Accepted norms were enforced, sometimes through violence.

Immigrants have always established for themselves what was acceptable behavior in their communities and the consequences for violations. 

Why Would Today’s Immigrants Be Any Different?

Sociologists tell us that cities are machines for integrating the minority into the majority. Immigrants create their own media, businesses, and institutions to cope in a strange and often hostile land. Immigrants often don’t know the language proficiently, don’t like the food, and cling to their norms and customs that offer comfort. 

Crimes Not Reported- 44% Of Noncitizens Had A Criminal History- Inadequate Records

I’m repeating this endlessly, but it’s important for understanding the data presented; per the US Department of Justice, the overwhelming majority of what we call crime is never reported to law enforcement, thus data indicating that illegal immigrants don’t show up in official records offers little proof that they are law-abiding.

Central and South American countries with very high rates of crime are not well known for keeping accurate records, thus the lack of a criminal history for illegal immigrants could be meaningless.

Per data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Noncitizens prosecuted in U.S. district courts are less likely to have a known criminal history than U.S. citizens. Approximately 44% of noncitizens and 60% of U.S. citizens had a known criminal history. This difference in criminal histories may be attributable to incomplete or unavailable records describing convictions for criminal offenses in other countries (emphasis added).”

Forty-four percent of prosecuted immigrants with criminal histories suggests the possibility that many illegal immigrants with criminal backgrounds may have entered the United States. 

Data from the FBI and the National Crime Victimization Survey clearly state that most violent crimes involve people who know each other, and those crimes often do not get reported to the police. Immigrants are well known for not reporting their victimizations, especially when it involves other immigrants.

Criminologically speaking, there’s always been a code within immigrant communities not to “snitch.” Not telling the cops that your neighbor beat the crap out of you in a drunken rage was accepted in immigrant communities. Why? Because the cops would rarely take action. Why? Because local gang leaders would extract retribution (protection rackets) for a price, or you would do it yourself. Why? Because you are afraid of deportation or the deportation of your attacker (a sin within immigrant communities).

Poverty-Age

Finally, all research connects overall crime and illegal immigration with economic status, confirming that most are poor. If there is any criminological variable most associated with crime, it’s age and poverty, a consistent finding in every sociological or criminological study.  Most immigrants are young and poor.

Media Reports 

I read crime reports daily, and there isn’t a day that goes by without a reference to illegal immigrants committing a violent crime. I could easily add many additional examples.

I assume that the steady drumbeat of news on immigrants and crime influences public opinion. CNN states that there is considerable and growing support for deporting illegal immigrants. Fifty-six percent of Americans agree with this policy. Sixty-one percent of independents agree.

Can you make an empirical judgment call about illegal immigrants and crime based on media reports? No. But lacking good data, people are going to be persuaded that there is a relationship between illegal immigration and crime. Examples:

Kate Steinle (San Francisco, 2015)

Crime: Homicide. Details: Kate Steinle was shot and killed on a San Francisco pier by José Inés García Zárate, an undocumented immigrant from Mexico with multiple prior deportations and felony convictions. He claimed the shooting was accidental, and he was acquitted of murder and manslaughter, but the case became a rallying cry for stricter immigration enforcement and led to political scrutiny of sanctuary city policies.

Tessa Tranchant & Allison Kunhardt (Virginia Beach, 2007)

Crime: DUI Manslaughter. Details: These two teenage girls were killed when Alfredo Ramos, an undocumented immigrant from Mexico with prior alcohol-related convictions, slammed into their vehicle while driving drunk. The case drew attention to local law enforcement’s lack of coordination with immigration authorities.

Mollie Tibbetts (Brooklyn, Iowa, 2018)

Crime: Homicide. Details: Mollie Tibbetts, a college student, was abducted and murdered while jogging. The suspect, Cristhian Bahena Rivera, was an undocumented immigrant from Mexico who had been living and working in Iowa under a false identity. He was convicted of first-degree murder in 2021.

Ronil Singh (Newman, California, 2018)

Crime: Officer killed in the line of duty. Details: Police Corporal Ronil Singh was shot and killed during a traffic stop by Gustavo Perez Arriaga, an undocumented immigrant and gang member with a criminal history. The case reignited debates around California’s sanctuary laws and how they affect police safety.

Pierce Corcoran (Knoxville, Tennessee, 2018)

Crime: Vehicular Homicide. Details: Pierce Corcoran, a 22-year-old college student, was killed in a head-on crash caused by Francisco Eduardo Franco Cambrany, an undocumented immigrant who was later charged with criminally negligent homicide and deported. The case was cited by local politicians as an example of preventable crime.

There are endless additional media accounts I could bring to the discussion, including criminal “tourists” legally flying into the country from South America to commit burglaries of expensive homes. Why? because they believe that America offers easy opportunities for crimes. They believe that they will not be caught. If caught, deportation rather than prison is the likely result.

Immigrant Communities and Organized Crime

Every major immigrant group brings with it—or develops—its own forms of organized criminal activity, often operating beneath the surface and outside official crime statistics:

• Mexican cartels and Central American gangs like MS-13 exploit immigrant flows and engage in human trafficking, drugs, and protection rackets.

• Chinese tongs and triads, Russian mafias, and Eastern European fraud rings operate within ethnic enclaves.

• West African scam networks, Middle Eastern smuggling operations, and Caribbean criminal gangs have established footholds in U.S. cities.

These groups focus on fraud, trafficking, extortion, cybercrime, and underground economies—crimes that are often invisible to the public and law enforcement unless proactively reported and investigated. In-group violence is common.

And again, many of their victims are immigrants themselves. Most crime stays within groups regardless of immigration status.

Final Thoughts

Concerns about immigration and crime shouldn’t be dismissed as xenophobia—but they also shouldn’t be based on fear, rumor, or one-off headlines. The full picture requires looking at what’s measured and what’s missed, at what gets reported and what stays silent, and at how communities protect—or exploit their own.

This is based on the history of crime, criminology, and sociology. There was a time when we thought that the Irish, Chinese, Jews, Italians, Eastern Europeans, and other groups were hotbeds of criminality. While repugnant to our sensibilities today, there was violence, gangs, and organized crime in just about every group entering America. 

Immigration from Central and South America probably emulates that experience. I do not doubt that there are millions of people escaping violence and many perpetuating it. 

Regardless, until I know otherwise, I treat all immigrants with basic courtesy and respect because acceptance of legal immigrants reduces the need to retreat into their own organizations and prompts their acceptance of American norms.

Illegal immigration, however, lacks the checks and balances designed to keep out the violent and those willing to hurt Americans. If you are here illegally, there is no proof that you are not a threat, while recognizing that criminal records from other countries are not nearly as robust as ours, and American criminal records are filled with inaccuracies.

Depending on criminal histories from foreign countries do not guarantee law-abiding behavior. There are active immigrant criminals with no foreign criminal histories. 

Note

This article includes mostly original writing and assistance from Chat GPT and a Google search. All sources were verified and reviewed for relevance.

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Appendix-Most Of What’s Below Was Mentioned In The Article Above

Recent Data on Immigration and Crime:

NBC News: More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide — either in the United States or abroad — are living outside of Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention, according to data ICE provided to Congress earlier this week. A 2016 DHS Inspector General’s report found there were 368,000 criminal immigrants who were not detained by ICE. According to ICE’s fiscal year 2023 budget justification, there were 405,786 convicted criminal immigrants on the non-detained docket as of June 5, 2021, NBC.

Associated Press: ICE said 662,556 people under its supervision were either convicted of crimes or face criminal charges. Nearly 15,000 were in its custody, but the vast majority — 647,572 — were not.

Included in the figures of people not detained by ICE were people found guilty of very serious crimes: 13,099 for homicide, 15,811 for sexual assault, 13,423 for weapons offenses and 2,663 for stolen vehicles. The single biggest category was for traffic-related offenses at 77,074, followed by assault at 62,231 and dangerous drugs at 56,533, AP

Northwestern University Study (March 2024): Analyzing 150 years of U.S. Census data, this study found that immigrants are consistently less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born individuals. Notably, since 1960, immigrants have been 60% less likely to be incarcerated compared to native-born Americans, NU.

American Immigration Council Analysis (October 2024): This analysis indicated that between 1980 and 2022, as the immigrant share of the U.S. population more than doubled from 6.2% to 13.9%, the total crime rate dropped by 60.4%. Specifically, violent crime decreased by 34.5%, and property crime fell by 63.3%, ​Immigration Impact.

University of Wisconsin–Madison Study (2020): This study found that counties with larger undocumented immigrant populations tend to have lower crime rates, UW.

Older Studies & Data Suggesting Lower or Comparable Crime Rates Among Immigrants

Cato Institute – “Criminal Immigrants in Texas” (2019–2023)

Finding: Both legal and illegal immigrants have significantly lower criminal conviction rates than native-born Americans in Texas.

Quote: “The conviction rate for illegal immigrants was 45% below that of native-born Americans.”

Source: Cato.

National Academy of Sciences (2015) – “The Integration of Immigrants into American Society”

Finding: Immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated and show overall lower crime rates.

Quote: “Immigrants are in fact less likely to commit crime than native-born citizens.”

Source: NAS.

American Immigration Council – “The Criminalization of Immigration in the United States”

Finding: Immigration status has no consistent relationship with crime rates.

Source: AIC.

Journal of Quantitative Criminology (2018) – Light, Massoglia, & King

Finding: Increased undocumented immigration is associated with lower rates of violent crime.

Quote: “We find no evidence that undocumented immigration increases violent crime.”

Study Title: “Exploring the Relationship between Immigration and Violent Crime Rates in U.S. Metropolitan Areas”

Source

Bureau of Justice Statistics – National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Finding: Most crime is not reported, especially within immigrant communities.

Implication: Official arrest/incarceration stats may undercount immigrant-related crime, particularly in undocumented populations.

Source: BJS. 

Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) – Critical of Open-Border Policies

Finding: Raises concerns about crime by illegal immigrants, especially in jurisdictions with sanctuary policies.

Caution: CIS is generally seen as useful for presenting the counter-argument, but should be identified as advocacy-based.

Source: CIS.