When police officers respond to my articles about crime, the pushback is often immediate and consistent:
“The numbers aren’t real. We’re not reporting everything.”
It’s a common refrain, heard across jurisdictions of all sizes. And it’s not new, possibly 80 percent of police officers’ comments when my articles address crime result in claims that their cities are being disingenuous about crime data.
An Example?
Violent crime rates plunge in America’s big cities
Axios: Violent crime fell sharply across the largest U.S. cities in early 2026, extending a nationwide decline that began after the pandemic-era crime spike.
Pirro ‘not surprised’ after DC officers placed on leave amid crime stats probe
The Hill: More than a dozen Washington, D.C., police officers were placed on leave this week amid an internal investigation into the alleged manipulation of crime statistics, a development U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro said on Thursday did not shock her.
The dynamics in Washington, D.C., exist in every city in the country. All cities want lower crime. If your mayor demands reduced crime, there is pressure to deliver.
Proof?
First, there is little hard evidence that most, if any, cities are playing fast and loose with their crime data; most are only allegations. And it would take a much larger article to discuss all the issues with crime data. For more, see Is FBI Data A Reliable Count Of National Crime?
Do I think my police officer respondents are being less than honest? No, but it’s a matter of proof. But it’s more than a bit disturbing when hundreds of police officers, over time, are singing the same song.
Chicago
Decades ago, when I left law enforcement and entered college, one of my first criminology courses examined Chicago’s history of manipulating crime statistics. It wasn’t presented as a fringe theory; it was part of the academic discussion about how crime data is produced.
That history still shapes today’s debate. But the issue has evolved.
There is no official list of cities proven to be downplaying crime. What exists instead is something broader: a pattern of allegations, audits, reporting gaps, and data inconsistencies across multiple jurisdictions, past and present.
Is US Crime Up Or Down?
Crime statistics for the US add to the confusion. Endless mayors, advocates, and government officials are claiming that their interventions reduced crime in 2025 and 2026, regardless of the lack of independent, well-researched, and replicated evidence.
The FBI states that violent and property crimes have decreased beginning in 2023 (3 percent) and 2024 (4.5 percent). The latest data from the FBI’s website states that crime continues to fall.
But per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 50-year-old National Crime Victimization Survey (what the US Census and USDOJ call the premier method of counting crimes in America), we had a large increase in rates of violent crime in 2022 (44 percent), and rates have remained almost unchanged for 2023 and the latest-most recent full report for 2024.
The National Crime Victimization Survey states that urban violence increased in its latest 2024 report. Independent analysts say that violent and property crimes are falling considerably in cities based on crimes reported to law enforcement.
Thus, any analysis of factors that contribute to violent or property crime is confounded by our struggle to judge the effectiveness of interventions or to evaluate our personal safety. If we can’t agree on whether crime is up or down locally or nationally, how can we judge the effectiveness of programs?
You can make any case about crime you want based on USDOJ data. Different sources allow for differing interpretations.
Fear Of Crime
Then we need to recognize that the vast majority of the American public expresses an excessive or moderate concern or fear of crime. However, those expressing the highest levels of concern have been reduced from previous record fears.
Regardless, the high level of fear comes from a variety of factors, including personal interactions with crime or the experiences of friends and neighbors.
The Majority Of Crime Is Not Reported
The majority of all crime is not reported to law enforcement. Approximately 30 percent of property crimes are reported, and property crime makes up approximately 70 percent of all crime.
About half of violent crimes are reported, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch-pirate thefts than the total number of property crimes reported to the FBI.
There are many additional examples I could provide. The Bureau of Justice Statistics states that 13 percent of sexual assaults are reported in urban areas.
So, Before We Look At Individual Cities, Let’s Summarize
How police officers record crimes, how crimes are counted locally and nationally, understanding that the majority of crime is not reported, most violent crimes include someone the victims know, and the fear of crime that most Americans continue to express are all factors that make this discussion challenging.
There are issues with the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), which can record up to 10 crimes per incident rather than a single major crime under the previous Summary Reporting System.
Approximately 16,000 out of 18,000 law enforcement agencies actively report data to the NIBRS. There may be issues with full compliance due to the process’s newness. Police agencies may not be sharing all crimes that occur within an incident.
We know that multiple charges come with most arrests that “could” easily double or triple a city’s crime numbers.
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