Biden claims that crime decreased considerably, but did it?

I live immediately next to Florida’s Space Center; many friends and neighbors work there. A favorite observation is that “space is hard.” It’s an extraordinarily complex undertaking where one mistake can ruin a billion-dollar mission.

It’s the same with measuring crime. There are so many factors to consider that it boggles the mind, but media sources will simply state that crime is either up or down without providing the details. Politically, groups and people will take sides either insisting that we have never lived in safer times or, per Gallup, fear of crime is at record levels.

What have I learned from decades of writing about crime? It’s impossible to do it without facing immense scrutiny. I could suggest that what’s below is nonpartisan but it would be a useless proclamation.

Fact Check-Did Crime Decrease in 2022?

Did Violent Crime Go Up or Down Last Year? Yes, It Did is an article from the Council On Criminal Justice. The title helps illustrate the complexity of crime statistics in America.

(Reuters) – President Joe Biden on Wednesday celebrated large drops in crime rates across the U.S. last year during a White House meeting with police chiefs from major cities which suffered sharp spikes in homicides and violent crime during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Last year, the United States had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime in more than 50 years,”

(Associated Press)-Violent crime across the nation rose following the pandemic. But despite Republican claims that it’s continuing to rise, crime decreased in 2022, dropping to about the same level as before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the most recent FBI crime data. The exception is property crime.

What The Data Says-National Crime Victimization Survey

There are two reports from the US Department of Justice on crime, data from the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and numbers from the FBI.

The National Crime Victimization, a survey of “all” crime (with some exceptions) recorded the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history in 2022, a 44 percent increase per criminologist  Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project. There was a huge increase in violence among groups.

What The Data Says-FBI

The first thing to understand is that the FBI doesn’t report crime, it offers data on “reported” crime and the vast majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement which is why we have the National Crime Victimization Survey.

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, only 42 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement.

Thirty-two percent of property crimes are reported. The great majority of what we call crime are property-related events which means that the FBI records a small fraction of overall crime which means that any finding under ten percent (regardless of whether it’s an increase or decrease) could easily be incorrect.

There are so many complexities as to “reported” crime that it would take pages to describe. There are dozens of factors to consider that could influence crime reporting.

By the way, what’s the fixation with crime in 2022 when it’s 2024? Both federal agencies release their data in the fall for the proceeding year thus the “official” observation for the most recent yearly crime data is for 2022. When the question of increasing or decreasing crime comes up, we traditionally use the last year of full crime data.

For 2022, the FBI offered 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year.

Summation For Violent Crime-2022

So in summation, we have the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history via a US Department of Justice yearly survey or a decrease of 1.7 percent from the FBI, essentially flat.

But Wait-There’s More-Reported Crime in 2023 For The Nation

Via the FBI’s new (started in 2015) National Incident-Based Reporting System, they are now offering quarterly reports at a record pace. For 2023, it’s more than possible that, per email conversations with the FBI, full-year data for 2023 could be here by mid-summer if not sooner. The FBI did not give me a specific date.

As of this writing, however, we have FBI data for the first three-quarters of 2023. The FBI offered new third-quarter (January through September 2023) crime statistics for cities, metro, and nonmetropolitan areas in 2023. Observations:

Decreases are across the board for all crimes except for increases in Motor Vehicle Theft.

11,806 law enforcement agencies out of 19,000 participated.

Violent crime fell by 8.2 percent. Murder fell by 15.6 percent.

But Wait-There’s More-Reported Crime in 2023 From Cities

Three groups are using big city crime dashboards as a substitute for the FBI’s findings. They are the Council on Criminal Justice, criminologist Jeff Asher, and the Major City Chiefs Association.

The results are a mix of increases and decreases for cities but there seems to be a consensus that crime in cities is decreasing.

But if you look at the data from the Major City Chiefs Association, there are dozens of cities where categories of crime are increasing, including homicides. But overall, crime in cities seems to be decreasing. There are cities where the violent crime problem continues to go up. Washington, D.C. has a huge and growing violent crime problem in one of the most prosperous (and economically stable) cities in the US. 

Anything Else?

Yeah, there’s always something else. I just did an updated article (forthcoming) on months of crime courtesy of a new data run from the FBI. Guess what month exceeds all others? December.

Now, December can’t be the most prominent month for all crime categories. When I did the original article, the FBI stated that many law enforcement agencies submit the bulk of their full-year data in December.

Thus anyone measuring “reported” crime for the first three quarters of 2023 could find that their statistics are considerably off.

That plus the fact that there are thousands of law enforcement agencies either not sending full-year data (or any data) to the FBI and there are major police agencies not sending full-year crime data. However, the number of participating police agencies in the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System has greatly improved.

What People Need To Understand About Suggested Decreasing Crime

As stated, measuring crime is immensely complex. If you are interested in the variables, see here.

First, there’s probably a good reason for 2023 crime decreases. Per one measure of big city crime dashboards from The Major Cities Chiefs Association (includes US and Canadian cities), from 2019-2022, homicides increased by 50 percent and aggravated assaults went up by by 36 percent.

Are the declines in FBI data or big city crime what methodologists call a regression to the mean (average) or an acknowledgment that big spikes (or decreases) in crime are not forever? Crime goes up and down for reasons we can’t fully identify. It’s been that way since the beginning of crime statistics.

Cities, police chiefs, and advocates are taking credit for decreases when reductions may have nothing to do with their initiatives. Thus whatever decreases are being recorded for 2023 are probably the result of “whatever goes up must come down.”

The second major factor to consider is the research on crime control projects. Does Anything Work To Reduce Crime? records the utter lack of good, high-quality research focusing on crime control efforts. Everyone is now taking credit for the decrease in cities when the hard truth is that we do not know why crime goes up or down.

To my knowledge, there are two programs with hundreds of high-quality studies on crime, proactive policing and criminal rehabilitation. Proactive policing showed reductions in crime but there were questions as to the degree of success. Criminal rehabilitation programs mostly failed to reduce recidivism and when they did, the results were very small.

When I left policing to go to college, my criminology professors stated that while some studies show the effectiveness of law enforcement, remove them and see what happens. Cops have been very reluctant to engage in proactive policing because of the protests regarding police use of force. We should note that arrests and incarcerations are now increasing for the first time in many years.

So beyond proactive policing, there is little to nothing in the way of high-quality research indicating that (fill in the blank) is worth a tinkers dam. That’s not to say that violence interrupters (or any other modality) are not effective. It’s just an acknowledgment that there’s little good, independent, methodologically correct data as to program effectiveness.

Conclusions

Is the President correct when he states that there were large decreases in violent crime in 2022? No.

Is the President correct when he states that there are decreases in “reported” crime in major cities? For 2023, for many cities, he may be correct but we won’t know until fourth quarter crime statistics are in.