Per Gallup, we have a record fear of crime, and Americans telling us that they want a tougher criminal justice system.
Are Americans wrong about their concerns? Some pundits suggest that Americans are being silly or overreacting to their worries about crime.
Gallup just posted, “Americans Getting Tough on Crime.”
Summation:
- 58% say the criminal justice system is not tough enough, up 17 points since 2020.
- 14% think it is too tough.
- Fear of crime continues to increase.
- Equal 49% shares of U.S. adults say such suspects are treated very or somewhat fairly and very or somewhat unfairly.
The Controversy Over American Views Of Crime
There are endless articles on why Americans are delusional about crime. Pundits will tell you that crime in America is receding, not growing. They will tell you that Americans have never lived in safer times when comparing decades of dramatically less crime (which was correct) but that all ended in 2015 with a 28 percent increase in violent crime (and serious violent crime) compared to previous years per the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey.
Telling Americans that their views on crime are unrealistic or unjustified seems a tad insulting per James Carville.
“….James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist who in the 1990s helped Bill Clinton overcome concerns that Democrats were “soft on crime,” said the party would be wise to follow the lead of its Black mayors who are responding to their constituents’ concerns.”
“If you cede something that your voters in particular encounter every day, then you’ve given up,” he said. “You’ve got to own this or this is going to own you.”
“The latest readings on this measure, from Gallup’s Oct. 2-23 annual Crime survey, mark the sixth time the question has been asked since 1992. The three readings between 1992 and 2003 found solid majorities of Americans, ranging from 65% to 83%, saying the criminal justice system was not tough enough on crime.
Yet, the next time the question was asked, in 2016, less than half of U.S. adults thought the system needed to be tougher and nearly as many said it was about right. These views were generally steady in 2020.”
“When asked which should be the greater priority for the U.S. criminal justice system today, 55% of Americans favor strengthening law and order through more police and greater enforcement of the laws, while 42% prefer reducing bias against minorities by reforming court and police practices.
When this question was last asked in 2016, just under half of Americans favored strengthening law and order.”
There were considerable differences based on political affiliation and race.
Does The Data Support American Views on Crime?
Editor’s Note: All links and data below are available at “Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.“
Based on the latest crime statistics from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization and studies of crimes reported to law enforcement in cities, you can make any argument you want and have data to support your views:
Per the National Crime Victimization Survey from the US Department of Justice, the latest data (2022), we have what many believe is the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent). The growth in the criminal victimization of groups is incredibly high.
Gallup’s latest reports add credibility to the record increases in violence recorded by the National Crime Victimization Survey.
The FBI offers 12 categories of crimes (13 including hate crimes). Note that a small percentage of crime (42 percent for violent crimes and 32 percent for property crimes) is reported to the FBI. Four categories decreased, six categories increased and one (burglary) was flat. Hate crimes increased.
The FBI’s crime statistics estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 (essentially flat) compared to 2021 estimates. There was a 6 percent drop in homicides.
Per those writing about crime based on big city crime dashboards, there are mostly decreases in violence in 2023. The decreases vary per source.
Most sources indicate a rise in property crime, breaking previous multi-year trends.
Conclusions
The Hill: “Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe crime is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the U.S., according to a Gallup poll.”
“The 63 percent rate is the highest collected by Gallup, with the previous high of 60 percent found in 2000, 2010, and 2016.”
“A small proportion of respondents considered crime extremely serious in their local communities — 17 percent — but more than half of them believe crime has gone up in their area.”
“Nationally, about three-quarters of Americans believe crime has gone up, underlining the tough-on-crime political narrative of conservative politicians.”
So we have a record fear of crime, firearms are now in the homes of half of American households, security sales are dramatically increasing, and people are moving out of cities.
Most Americans are victimized by crime yearly.
I spoke to a person regarding national crime statistics who told me that crime data was irrelevant. The most important indicator of crime in the United States was fear of crime.
In the final analysis, per James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist, “If you cede something that your voters in particular encounter every day, then you’ve given up,” he said. “You’ve got to own this or this is going to own you.”
Unless those of us who write about crime “own this,” we will continue to downplay the perceptions of Americans. It took weeks for some major “progressive” crime publications to acknowledge that we had just experienced the largest increase in violence in the nation’s history. Gallup’s record fear of crime data was mostly ignored.
However, the collective data (with exceptions for big city crime dashboards) indicates that we have a significant and growing crime problem in America that needs to be addressed. How we do this while understanding fairness issues via the Gallup poll will be an immense challenge.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
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