Analyzing national violence and property crime statistics can cause mental whiplash. Understanding crime in America has never been more challenging.
For the upcoming elections, politicians will make multiple claims about crime and violence based on the National Crime Victimization Survey, data from the FBI, state and local crime repositories, and additional national sources like the CDC, Gallup, Pew, and others.
It’s clear that many do not understand the National Crime Victimization Survey, the reason for this article.
An article I wrote in March is getting heavy play on Reddit and other social sites about states with the highest rates of violence.
Those commenting are saying that they refused to believe that the states mentioned had higher rates of violence than other parts of the country based on crimes reported to the police. In the Reddit group, the issue wasn’t resolved until someone explained that the data was from the National Crime Victimization Survey, and only 42 percent of total violent incidents were reported to law enforcement (thus the need for a survey), and the fact that the data was a product of the US Department of Justice.
It seems that few in the media and the criminal justice community know of (or understand) the National Crime Victimization Survey. Those that do are often confused by quirks within the data provided. This article provides some clarifications.
The National Crime Victimization Survey just released its latest report showing one of the largest increases in violent crime ever (44 percent). With a nation fixated on violence, you would think it would make national news.
I just did a search for “National Crime Victimization Survey” (the report was released in late August) and there are no mainstream reports on the latest results which is massively confusing because of the findings.
The National Crime Victimization Survey in question is from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice. The title is Criminal Victimization-2022.
We have a country experiencing massive problems with violent and property crime. Fear of crime is at record levels. Crime is one of the country’s top concerns and plays an integral role in national and state elections.
Yet when the latest version of the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2022 came out suggesting one of the largest increases in violent crime (44 percent per one analyst) and dramatically increasing rates of violence for a wide array of groups, it was ignored by the national media.
Why?
It’s possible that the media knows little about a platform that’s been around for 50 years. The number of reporters assigned to a crime and justice beat has plummeted.
But when the FBI releases its yearly crime statistics for 2022 (based on crimes reported to law enforcement) it will get national media attention. Note that USDOJ crime statistics are always a year behind; the FBI plans on releasing quarterly crime data.
Many looking at crime data express some bewilderment as to the complexity and contradictions of data sources. Readers need to understand that national crime reports do not necessarily agree with each other as to findings. This includes data from the FBI, Gallup, Pew, the CDC, and individual reports from a variety of federal and state agencies.
The same holds true with the National Crime Victimization Survey.
Some Background On National Crime Counts From The US Department Of Justice
The vast majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. 42 percent of violent crimes were reported per the National Crime Victimization Survey in 2022. It’s much less for property crimes (about 30 percent) thus the need for a national survey to count “all” crimes.
The survey uses a methodology similar to the US Census.
The 2022 report is the 50th in a series that began in 1973 and includes statistics on nonfatal violent crimes (rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault) and property crimes (burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft).
The report also describes the characteristics of crimes and victims.
The report does not count homicides (you can’t interview dead people).
Annual National Criminal Victimization Survey estimates are based on the number and characteristics of crimes that respondents experienced during the prior 6 months, excluding the month in which they were interviewed.
Some suggest that crimes reported to law enforcement (as compiled by the FBI) are “important” enough to call the police and that surveys count the “real” number of crimes.
People do not report crimes to the police for an endless number of reasons, one is that most violent crime happens among people who know each other.
Your drunk friend could hit you with a beer bottle (an aggravated assault) but you choose to handle it personally. But when the National Crime Victimization Survey calls and asks about recent victimization, you tell them about the assault.
Both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics release separate crime reports in the fall for the preceding year thus both release what is essentially old data “yet” the FBI’s crimes reported to law enforcement will get significantly more media coverage because people are more familiar with it.
It would take pages to describe the challenges both agencies are having with their crime statistics. I’ll summarize with the observation that the FBI moved to a new-comprehensive and robust reporting system but approximately 30 percent of local law enforcement agencies in 2023 haven’t completed their adoption. The FBI plans to release quarterly statistics when the number of participating agencies increases.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics is contemplating a redesign as to how they collect data through the National Crime Victimization Survey (redesign reports are available on their website).
My description here of the complexities of national crime numbers is woefully understated, see Violent And Property Crime in the United States for more.
What’s Wrong With The National Crime Victimization Survey?
The short answer is nothing. The world of survey research is complex, even more so because of the pandemic with numerous references from major polling organizations changing survey strategies.
As stated above, the National Crime Victimization Survey is contemplating a redesign after 50 years of service.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is necessary because the vast majority of violent and property crimes are unreported to law enforcement. To gain an understanding of “all” crime, a national survey is imperative.
The National Crime Victimization Survey offers far larger numbers than crimes reported to law enforcement and national reports issued by the FBI. Generally speaking, the larger the numbers, the more accurate the results.
The National Crime Victimization Survey offers separate reports giving readers a qualitative assessment of dozens of variables about crime. Through these documents, we gain a fairly decent sense of who’s victimized, data on criminal offenders, where crime happens, and additional issues. They seem to be investigating the possible release of data for states and smaller jurisdictions.
But the National Crime Victimization Survey, like all polling data, has its imperfections and disagreements with other national reports on crime.
There are times when other authoritative crime data indicate that crime is decreasing and the National Crime Victimization Survey states that crime is increasing.
There are times when other authoritative crime data indicate that crime is increasing while the National Crime Victimization Survey states that crime is decreasing.
What’s below is a summation of some of the more interesting quirks in National Crime Victimization Survey data from recent years. No one is suggesting that the data is incorrect, just different than what’s offered from other sources.
Readers need to understand this and compare multiple sources to gain the best possible understanding of crime in the United States.
Challenges
As the paragraphs above explain, there are differences between the National Crime Victimization Survey and other sources of information on national crime.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics can change what they report, thus offering dramatically different answers as to whether violent crime is up or down.
National Crime Victimization Survey-2022-Disagreements With Big City Police Data
The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022. It provides for a 44 percent increase in violent crime per one analyst which may be the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history.
There were 6.6 million violent victimizations of persons age 12 or older in the United States in 2022, up from 4.6 million in 2021.
Many groups had very large percentage increases in violent victimization.
Households in the United States experienced 13.4 million property victimizations in 2022, up from 11.7 million in 2021.
Rising violence per the National Crime Victimization Survey in 2022 stands in contrast with reports from multiple sources based on large city police dashboards in 2023 that there are large decreases in homicides and overall violent crime and many categories of property crime.
So it seems that we have a paradox, significantly rising violence and serious violence in 2022 per the National Crime Victimization Survey and mostly decreasing violent crime in 2023 based on police city dashboards while recognizing that only 41.5 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement.
Yes, we are addressing different years, but the vast increase in violence in 2022 is so profound that decreases in city police crime dashboard data (based on reported crimes) for 2023 seem difficult to comprehend and may be due to other factors (i.e., crime reporting, excessive wait times for the police to arrive, police-community relations).
Note that per the Major City Chiefs Association, homicides rose 50 percent between 2019-2022. Aggravated assaults went up by 36 percent. So it’s possible that 2023 decreases in crimes reported to law enforcement may be nothing more than a reaction to huge previous increases, known as a regression to the mean (or average). Rates or numbers of crime never stay the same, they change from year to year.
As I write this, we do not have a national summation for crime from the FBI for 2022 as of yet.
National Crime Victimization Survey-2021-In Agreement With “Most” Crime Sources With An Emphasis on Urban Crime-Disagreement With Some Total Crime Numbers
The Bureau Of Justice Statistics released Criminal Victimization 2021 in September of 2021 stating that from 2020 to 2021, the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas while remaining unchanged in suburban or rural areas per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The rate of serious violent victimization in urban areas also increased.
The overall violent victimization rate did not change between 2020 and 2021. The rate of property victimization in 2021 was 90.3 victimizations per 1,000 households, which was not statistically different from the 2020 rate.
The National Crime Victimization Survey seems to be in agreement with numerous reports that urban crime increased while understanding that some data suggested crime increases for the entire country, see Violent And Property Crime In The US for details regarding the 2021 data.
National Crime Victimization Survey-2020-In Disagreement With FBI Data
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the US Department of Justice states that the violent victimization rate dropped 22 percent in 2020, Criminal Victimization 2020.
To give you an indication of the complexity of crime statistics, the Bureau of Justice Statistics states that the violent victimization rate dropped by 22 percent in 2020. This is the largest decrease in violence ever reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Per 2020 FBI (crimes reported to law enforcement) final statistics released in September 2021, the number of homicides increased nearly 30% from 2019, the largest single-year increase the agency has recorded. Overall violent crime and aggravated assaults also increased. Historically, homicides have been used as an indicator of overall violence.
The announcement was startling. Everyone expected BJS to document increasing violence based on FBI and many additional reports that violent crime increased considerably.
In 2020 we were in a national conversation regarding increasing homicides and violent crime in urban areas throughout the country. 2020 was greatly impacted by COVID “and” the belief that violence exploded after the 2020 COVID lockdowns ended “plus” multiple instances of civil unrest based on police use of force controversies.
I (and others) believe that COVID may have interfered with the usual data collection process as documented in Criminal Victimization 2020, and other sources. There is an ongoing analysis within the research community as to polling methods during difficult times.
There is ample evidence from other sources that violence in America increased in 2020 and 2021. This includes data from the FBI and major research organizations. There is data from reputable sources indicating that violence continues to rise in 2021 and 2022.
Nevertheless
Nevertheless, as of this writing, I am unaware of researchers or methodologists suggesting that reports from the Bureau of Justice Statistics are invalid or should be used with caution.
Until methodological issues are raised, the finding that the violent victimization rate dropped 22 percent in 2020 and that the violent victimization rate increased from 19.0 to 24.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in urban areas only in 2021 remains the official position of the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice.
See my full analysis for 2020 at Violent Crime Drops 22 Percent.
National Crime Victimization Survey-2019-Violence Decreased-Then Was Flat-But Decreased Again-All In The Same Year
Per a press release from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “After rising from 1.1 million in 2015 to 1.4 million in 2018, the number of persons who were victims of violent crime excluding simple assault dropped to 1.2 million in 2019.”
The rate of violent crime excluding simple assault declined 15% from 2018 to 2019, from 8.6 to 7.3 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
Does The 2019 Decrease Hold If You Include Simple Assaults?
Per the full report (not the press release): From 2018 to 2019, there was no statistically significant change in the rate of total violent victimization, which includes simple assault.
Based on the 2019 survey, about 65% of total violent victimizations were simple assaults, with the remaining 35% being rape or sexual assault, robbery, or aggravated assault.
There were no statistically significant changes in the total number of robberies, aggravated assaults, or simple assaults from 2018 to 2019.
Source: National Crime Victimization Survey
Email Clarification From The Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Survey-Violent Crime Flat
Per an email from BJS on September 14, 2020, “…there was no statistically significant change in number or rate of total violent victimization from 2018 to 2019″ (this includes simple assault).
But BJS Changed Their Numbers for 2019 in 2020
In Criminal Victimization-2020, the Bureau of Justice Statistics offered a chart that indicates that the numbers and rates for violent crime decreased in 2019, contradicting what they previously said.
Analysis
Data has a way of changing when researchers re-run numbers. I’m not suggesting anything nefarious. But the bottom line is that their chart shows decreases in violent crime in 2019 which is different from what the Bureau of Justice Statistics previously offered through official reports.
Reports From the National Crime Victimization Survey Showing Increased Violence-2015-2018-A Substantial Increase In Crime
The National Crime Survey reported an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018 when including simple assaults.
The number of persons who had been victims of violent crime was up 17 percent from 2015-2017 per the National Crime Victimization Survey.
The National Crime Victimization Survey states that the number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018.
Per the National Crime Victimization Survey, the seriousness of violent crimes also increased, Serious Violence.
So it seems that we have had dramatic increases in violence for some years per the National Crime Victimization Survey followed by a series of less violent crime for the following years until the release of Criminal Victimization-2022.
Note that Criminal Victimization-2022 shows substantial increases for property crimes thus breaking a record decrease for property crimes for many years.
Conclusions
Analyzing national violence and property crimes can cause mental whiplash. Understanding crime in America has never been more challenging which is why readers need to look at different reputable sources and come to their own conclusions.
For the upcoming national and state elections, politicians will make multiple claims about crime and violence based on the National Crime Victimization Survey, data from the FBI, state and local crime repositories, and additional national sources like the CDC, Gallup, Pew, and many others. They tend to cherry-pick the statistics that meet their agendas.
All claims will have to be compared to multiple sources to understand the true nature of crime.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
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