Given two close calls in two months, how likely is it Iran will attempt to assassinate Trump?

As Law Enforcement Today recently reported, Democrats have been engaged in rhetoric that has at least twice incited Trump-hating zealots to make an attempt on his life, with one shooter striking the former president in the ear and if not for an innocent turn of the head, would have killed him.

Another would-be assassin was posted on a West Palm Beach golf course with what was described as an AK-47 or SKS-style rifle while Trump was playing golf. If not for the diligence of a lone Secret Service agent who spotted the shooter, it is likely, given the range, that Trump would have been killed or gravely wounded. 

AND Magazine posted a Substack by Sam Faddis, who questioned if the Iranians, whom the federal government says has an assassination fatwa against Trump, will try to carry it out given the fact that two untrained lunatics were able to get so close to killing him. 

The Iranians have been angry with Trump since he ordered the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, suspected in the deaths of American troops in Iraq. Since that time, Iran has vowed to kill Trump and other key members of his cabinet, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former National Security Adviser John Bolton. 

The AP recently reported that a Pakistani man with ties to Iran has been charged with engaging in a plot to carry out political assassinations on American soil, including President Trump. 

That suspect, Asif Merchant, traveled to New York City in June to meet with men whom he believed were recruiting individuals to carry out the killings and even paid a $5,000 advance to two undercover law enforcement officers posing as would-be assassins. 

He was arrested in July as he was preparing to leave the United States after informing the undercover officers he would provide further instructions, including intended targets, in August or September. 

Given the threats against Trump by a rogue nation such as Iran, it is shocking that two neophytes were able to get in a position to carry out an assassination that a trained assassin would have had no problem carrying out. 

Two years ago, another Iranian agent, Shahram Poursafi, was arrested and charged with plotting Bolton’s murder. In that case, Poursafi offered to pay individuals inside the U.S. $300,000 to carry out the murder in either Washington, D.C. or Maryland. 

“The Justice Department has the solemn duty to defend our citizens from hostile governments who seek to hurt or kill them,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the DOJ’s National Security Division at the time. “This is not the first time we have uncovered Iranian plots to exact revenge against individuals on U.S. soil, and we will work tirelessly to expose and disrupt every one of these efforts.” 

“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, through the Defendant, tried to hatch a brazen plot: assassinate a former U.S. official on U.S. soil in retaliation for U.S. actions,” said U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves for the District of Columbia.

That plot was so advanced that it reached the point where Poursafi had located Bolton’s work address. He also made it clear to the person he hired that the assassination needed to be carried out quickly. He (Poursafi) also suggested that if he used a “small weapon,” he would have to get closer to the target; however, if he used a “larger weapon,” he could stay further away. 

Poursafi also said he was getting Bolton’s movements from another source, and disturbingly, that information does not appear to have been publicly available. Poursafi was also aware that there was a minimal security presence at Bolton’s home, which he had been told by another source working for him. 

In the case of Trump, some, including former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino, believe there may be a “mole” inside the Secret Service of other federal agencies due to the myriad of “mistakes” that appear to have been made by his security detail in both the Pennsylvania and Florida assassination schemes. 

In the case of Poursafi, Faddis believes the Iranians may have been or still are operating with a team of assets. 

“They also indicate a certain measure of compartmentation. The individual who was to carry out the assassination did not know the identities of the other members of the team,” Faddis wrote. 

Meanwhile, this past March, the FBI was searching for an Iranian intelligence officer inside the U.S. The FBI said that the intelligence officer they were seeking was here to carry out assassinations on American soil. 

“Majid Dastjani Farahani, an Iranian intelligence officer, is wanted for questioning in connection with the recruitment of individuals for various operations in the United States, to include lethal targeting of current and former United States government officials as revenge for the killing of IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani. Farahani also reportedly recruited individuals for surveillance activities focused on religious sites, businesses, and other facilities in the United States. Farahani acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security.” 

More recently, it was reported that Iran hacked the Trump campaign and provided the information to the Kamala Harris campaign. The Iranian organization that carried out the hack is known by many names, including APT42 and Charming Kitten. They are part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the parent organization of the Quds Force. Among its many missions is to provide targeting information necessary for the Iranian regime to carry out assassinations and kidnappings. 

Mandiant Intelligence VP John Hultquist noted the group is especially dangerous due to its ties to the IRGC. 

“The IRGC has been associated with everything from DDoS to physical destruction, assassinations, threats to safety and lives,” he said in an interview with The Register. “And APT42 appears to be supporting them as they physically track people, so it’s hard to imagine a more dangerous scenario.” 

Mandiant isn’t the only entity concerned about Charming Kitten and APT42. It is universally believed that the organization has evolved heavily into so-called “kinetic operations.” Iranians use information gleaned from the organization to organize kidnappings and assassinations worldwide, including inside the U.S. Earlier in 2024, the Iranians recruited a member of the Hells Angels to kill an Iranian defector in Maryland, Faddis wrote. 

The hacking of Trump campaign materials is frightening, as Faddis outlines. 

“Now consider the mountain of intelligence that the Iranians could acquire on a Presidential campaign. Such an enterprise is vast. It includes thousands of volunteers and local activists. Communications of necessity run via personal cellphones, laptops, and tablets. Information is disseminated far and wide via unencrypted channels. Times, dates, locations, routes, and methods of transportation are blasted out via cell networks and the internet.” 

Utilizing proposed rally locations and routes, would-be Iranian terrorists could target either the Trump motorcade or thousands of his supporters. 

“From the sick perspective of a terrorist organization planning an attack, it is a treasure trove of data waiting to be analyzed and digested. It is a targeteer’s dream,’ Faddis wrote. 

Given the Secret Service's incompetence during July and this month attempts, it does not instill much confidence that the agency would be able to secure President Trump from a professional hit squad. As Faddis notes, the Secret Service doesn’t appear to be planning any significant changes to its operations. 

“On the contrary, the leadership of the Secret Service appears bureaucratic, divorced from reality, and defensive. They have a template. They will adhere to it. It does not seem to matter whether or not that template is working.”

 Last week, Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz suggested there are at least five assassination teams in the country pursuing Trump, according to a senior Homeland Security official acting in the capacity of a whistleblower. Yet despite that, and the fact U.S. officials are well aware of it, no effort is being made to enhance Trump’s security detail. It’s almost as though it is intentional.