Is US crime really declining or is it a lack of reporting? Are we denying the reality of US crime? Are we dismissing the preponderance of evidence of crime increases from multiple sources?
There are record increases in violent crime in the US per the USDOJ’s latest National Crime Victimization Survey. Crime is surging in Canada. Yet reported crime is declining in the US?
Canadian crime is increasing with the largest rate of violence in 20 years. Despite differences in rates, trends in crime between the two countries have been quite similar in the past.
The significant distinction is that Canadians report a much higher proportion of crimes than US citizens.
I love Canada. I love it for its beauty and friendly people. It has traditionally been a safe country.
The similarities between the United States and Canada are considerable. In my trips to Canada, I could easily imagine myself in New England or the Pacific NorthWest. It’s undoubtedly the country most similar to the US.
So why is there such a stark difference in reported crime between Canada and the US? Canadian violent crime has returned to levels seen 20 years ago.
It’s like New England and the US Pacific Northwest having considerable increases in reported crime when the rest of the country has decreasing numbers. You would say that this doesn’t make sense, because it doesn’t make sense. Why would New England and the Pacific Northwest be so different from the rest of the country?
The vast majority of crimes in the US are not reported to law enforcement which begs the question, are we really seeing declines in US crime or is it a matter of unreported crimes?
The Paradox
Reported crimes are falling in the US per the FBI. Yet three other sources, The USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey’s latest report, Mexico’s surging violence, and Canadian crime paint a different picture of North American lawlessness. The preponderance of evidence suggests that US crime should be increasing, not decreasing.
Interestingly, Canadians report a much higher proportion of crimes compared to US citizens which may explain their rising crime.
Reported Crime in The US-USA Today
Most violent crimes in U.S. cities are back down to pre-pandemic levels, according to the 2024 mid-year crime trend report by the Council on Criminal Justice released Thursday.
While federal crime data is difficult to track, the CCJ examines monthly crime rates in 39 cities that have consistently reported their crime data throughout the last several years.
Of the 12 types of crime analyzed, 11 showed lower rates so far this year compared to the same time frame in 2023. The exception is shoplifting, which is up 24% this year compared to the first half of 2023.
Beyond USA Today, there is also preliminary-unofficial data from the FBI based on reported crimes showing decreases for 2023 and 2024. Per President Biden, “According to preliminary data in two new reports, violent crime continued to fall to historic lows in the first half of 2024.”
So what happens when you compare US and Canadian crime?
Crime Statistics For Canada-Toronto Sun
Violent crime, auto thefts, extortion, and sexual assault are all up dramatically since 2015.
Violent crime is up 50% since the Trudeau government took office, and murders are up 28% since 2015.
While officially StatsCan says the crime severity index (Editor‘s note-explained below) was up just 2% over the last year, the Conservatives were quick to point to the raw data to tell a different story since the Liberals took office nine years ago.
In 2015, there were 382,115 violent crimes reported to police across the country, but in 2023 there were 572,572. That’s an increase of 50 percent.
On the homicide front, there were 609 counted by police in 2015 but 778 in 2023 – a 27.75% increase. The total number of homicides since Trudeau took office has never been as low at 609 and last year was at 882 or a 45% increase during the Trudeau years.
Auto theft is up 46%, sexual assaults are up 75%, violent firearms offenses are up 116%, and extortion is up by 357%.
Crime Statistics For Canada-CTV News
Last year, reported child pornography cases increased by more than 50 percent in Canada, in part due to more cases being sent to police by specialized internet child exploitation units, according to a Statistics Canada report.
The report notes other types of police-reported crime increased since 2022, including:
Hate crimes increased from 3,612 incidents in 2022 to 4,777 in 2023 (+32 percent)
Extortion rose from seven to 35 incidents per 100,000 people
Motor vehicle theft (+12 percent)
Robberies (+4 percent)
Fraud (+12 percent)
The national homicide rate, however, declined 14 percent in 2023, from 2.27 homicides per 100,000 people in 2022 to 1.94 in 2023. This is the first year the rate has gone down after four consecutive annual increases and the first time the homicide rate has been below two people per 100,000 since 2019.
Reported Crime Versus Total Crime
First, understand that the vast majority of crimes in the US are not reported to law enforcement.
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, 42 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement. Thirty-two percent of property crimes are reported to the police.
Twenty-six million Americans were victimized by identity theft in 2016 and only seven percent of victims called the police according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
74 percent of violent victimizations against juveniles were not reported to the police per the Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention of the USDOJ.
So whatever we report through local, state, or national crime statistics, it’s a tiny portion of the totality of crime.
Overall reported crime (beyond homicides) in the US could be up or down by considerable amounts yet have little bearing on our understanding of the severity of US crime.
Violence Is Up By Record Numbers Via The US National Crime Victimization Survey. It’s Similar To The Canadian Reported Crime Experience
The National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice in an “official” 2023 report states that violent crime increased 44 percent (per analyst Jeff Asher and The Marshall Project) with large increases in violence for groups for 2022.
A 44 percent increase in violence would be the largest ever recorded.
There has never been an increase in violent crime of this magnitude. A companion report on juvenile crime also offers data on greatly expanded violence. Both use a polling methodology similar to the US Census.
You can debate the worthiness of preliminary-unofficial statistics from the FBI (for 2023 and 2024) but the NCVS reports cited above are the most recent official studies on crime from the US Department of Justice. Official FBI reports based on reported crimes will be released this fall.
Statistics Canada also conducts a crime victimization survey every five years, thus comparisons with the US and its yearly National Crime Victimization Survey will be difficult and not used in this article.
Canadian crime numbers used here are recorded over time whereas the US National Crime Victimization Survey is a one-year account. That makes for a nuanced comparison.
So Why Is There A Difference Between Canada and the United States Reported Crime?
In Canada in 2015, there were 382,115 violent crimes reported to police across the country, but in 2023 there were 572,572. That’s an increase of 50%.
In the US, based on crimes reported to law enforcement, sources state that there have been record decreases in violent and property crimes over time.
Both countries are very similar (with similar historical crime trends) so is there an explanation for the differences?
First, The US National Crime Victimization Survey states that violent crime increased 44 percent in 2022. So there is some agreement between Canadian and US increases in crime and violent crime using two different methodologies.
Baseline data (the year of comparison) will always be an issue. Most US crime data uses 2019 as their pre-COVID baseline. Canadian publications are using 2015 via a change in political parties.
The US does its crime survey yearly. Canada does its crime survey every five years.
Canadian police departments are required to participate in reported crime statistics. It’s voluntary in the US.
But beyond that, crime statistics for the two very similar countries should be (and have been) approximately similar.
There may be uncited reasons for the discrepancy. There have always been reasons in the US for altered crime counts.
Approximately 68,500 police officers are serving in Canada. As of 2022, the United States employed 708,000 full-time law enforcement officers with over a million police employees per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, thus control over the process of collecting crime data is possibly more precise with the smaller numbers and mandated controls and participation regarding Canadian crime counts.
However, in the final analysis, there are variables to consider that are not included in this article such as a much larger population in the US (333 million) than in Canada (39 million).
Is It A Difference In Crime Reporting?
So the differences between Canadian and US crime may be an issue of crime reporting considering that the overwhelming percentage of US crime goes unreported yearly.
According to Statistics Canada, a significant portion of crimes go unreported. For example, in recent years, studies have shown that about 30-40 percent of incidents of violent crime and 50-60 percent of property crimes go unreported.
Approximately 60 percent of violent crime goes unreported in the US and approximately 70 percent of property crime in the US goes unreported per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics.
If you take the mid-range in crime reporting from Statistics Canada with 35 percent of violent crimes unreported and 55 percent of property crimes going unreported, compared to approximately 60 percent of US violent crimes going unreported and approximately 70 percent of US property crimes going unreported, it partially explains “increasing” reported crime in Canada and “decreasing” reported crime in the US.
But here I’m being generous; I provided USDOJ examples for juvenile crime and identity theft indicating that only tiny numbers or percentages of crimes are reported to law enforcement in the US.
Conclusions
I understand that everything including crime statistics is politicized during an election year and unfortunately readers will see this article in a political light. But is it possible to question the decrease in American reported crime when we have recent USDOJ crime survey statistics indicating record increases in violence along with concerning crime problems in Canada and Mexico?
A comparison of police-reported crime rates between Canada and the United States for 2000 shows that the U.S. has much higher rates of violent crime, while Canada generally has higher rates of property crime. Despite differences in rates, trends in crime between the two countries have been quite similar.
So why is there a difference now? There are endless variables not accounted for in this article (i.e., income and age).
Still, suppose the US had the same rate of crime reporting as in Canada. In that case, we could be seeing increases rather than decreases in reported crime, thus indicating that reported crime may not be a good indicator of the lawlessness Americans are facing.
The US National Crime Victimization Survey and Canadian authorities (with their higher percentages of reported crimes) recorded increases in crime over time. With the vast majority of a much lower percentage of reported crimes used to indicate that there are decreases in US crimes, it’s possible to assume that American reports could (and probably do) produce inaccurate results.
There are dozens of media articles harshly criticizing Americans for their record (supposably unrealistic) fear of crime via Gallup and their making crime and violence a clear priority in upcoming elections.
Maybe average Americans are right and the media reports are wrong. Maybe American perceptions of crime are based on what people can see, touch, and feel rather than what major publications believe they should feel.
Maybe we are wrong about decreasing reported crime based on USDOJ crime survey data and the experiences of two adjacent countries.
Reporters and pundits are unfortunately wedded to reported crime statistics via the FBI without challenge. There are endless intervening variables that should be considered, but they are not. The largest and most recent official USDOJ survey increase in violent crime in US history is ignored. The vast majority of what we call crime is not reported.
Yet we use reported crime statistics as if they are accurate counts from the hands of the almighty.
The justice system asked these same questions 50 years ago when the USDOJ introduced the National Crime Victimization Survey. The fundamental question is why reported versus unreported crimes are not considered along with USDOJ national survey data.
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